Tropical Storm Alberto has arrived on the scene after a rapid intensifying day. It was only this morning that a low located 120 south of Cape Fear, North Carolina received the designation of Invest 93L with a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 48 hours. So I guess you can say that it beat the odds, because at 5pm Eastern, it received the title of Tropical Storm Alberto. At 6:50pm Eastern, the NHC upgraded him to a 65 mph tropical storm, with a pressure of 995mb. And just a little while ago at 11pm Eastern, the NHC dropped him back down to 50 mph with a pressure of 998mb.


(Tropical Storm Alberto)

Alberto has become the earliest forming Atlantic storm since Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea formed on May 9th 2007. It is not unusual that we get these home grown coastal systems in the early season, although it sure doesn't happen very often. There have been only 4 in the last 10 years. (Bret 2011, Andrea 2007, Beryl 2006, Arthur 2002). All of these storms made a run at hurricane strength only to come up a little short.



(Tropical Storm Alberto)

Small systems like this usually have minimal effects on land. Alberto is staying just far enough the coast that their have been only trace amounts of rain in South Carolina so far. Charleston Air Force Base recorded a top wind gust of 23 mph.



(Radar Loop for TS Alberto)

The ocean waters are probably a little agitated though. With Alberto's rapid intensification coming on a weekend, it may have caught some boaters by surprise and caused an interesting day on the water. If the Hurricane Center's forecast track verifies, Alberto will likely not get any closer to land until a possible brush with the Outer Banks later in the week.



It is a very unusual satellite presentation overall. There is a more pronounced extra-tropical cyclone spinning just northeast of TS Alberto. It doesn't appear to be affecting Alberto in anyway at the moment, it may however later if the two get any closer together. To the south of Alberto however, is the entity that is doing the damage. That troughyness screaming through the Bahamas is pushing a dry air pocket into the southern flank of Alberto. This is preventing him from closing thunderstorm activity around his center, and pushing the convection that is present off to the north of his center.


(TS Alberto and Extra-Tropical Cyclone)

Forecasters are not using ink to draw up the forecast for this little bugger. Things can change for Alberto rapidly as we have seen once already. There seems to be a general consensus for the track. Alberto could push just a little bit closer to South Carolina before looping back to the Northeast. The intensity forecast is much trickier. The NHC is not forecasting any further strengthening for Alberto, and is only giving him a 9% chance of becoming a hurricane in the next 3 days. Even though Alberto pulled a fast one on them today, I'll still have to agree with the NHC forecast for tomorrow. These type of systems in the past had a tendency to just have one big surge of development and then struggle to hang on. This could be the case for Alberto as well. You can see that nasty wind shear moving up from underneath Alberto with dry air sandwiched between. That is going to be the main inhibitor for future development. There is a chance though that this could happen all over again tomorrow with another growth spurt.


(Wind Shear surrounding TS Alberto)

There is still a feature down in the western Caribbean. It's honestly hard to tell were exactly it is right now due to extremely turbulent winds blowing clouds all over the place. But it is still there, and it can't be discarded just yet. It was last seen in the Bay of Honduras, but may have started to broaden or migrate to the northeast into even more intense wind shear. One reason why we can't discard it yet is because of the possibility of those jets moving up to the north allowing that anti-cyclone covering most of Central America to move up and provide some relief to the Caribbean. Low pressure is forecast to remain in that area for a least another week.


(Atlantic Shear Map)

Meanwhile in the Pacific, this is how Tropical Depression Aletta looked just before her death which occurred at 5 pm Pacific.


(Tropical Depression Aletta)

Invest 92E has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. There is a lot of convection around it, but it is having a tough time getting some rotation going. Conditions in that area are expected to remain favorable, and the computer models are still calling for something to spring up out of here in the next few days. It could be 92E or the next invest that pulls this off.


(Invest 92E)

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Tropical Storm Alberto has formed off of the Carolina coast, fulfilling the concern we've had for a warm-core low to develop over the Gulf Stream beneath the upper-level trough split that has become cut-off near the SE U.S. coast. Alberto currently has tropical storm force winds of 45mph. Moderate convection has been sustained for about 18 hours now, mostly weighted in the northwest quadrant. The southeast quad is devoid of convection due to a lack of strong inflow and wind shear from the jetstream which is just to the south. Directly over the center of the storm, however, wind shear is weaker due to the elongated upper low becoming partially stacked with the surface low, something that some of the big-hitting models did not see happening a few days ago, but was still a concern based on some of their biases, which were discussed in the previous post. A stacked low has allowed convection to warm the mid-upper atmosphere and transition the low into a warm-core system that can now be considered a tropical cyclone. Upper-level anticyclonic outflow to the north of the system is further evidence of its warm-core transition.

Alberto will be meandering within weak steering currents off the SE U.S. coast for the next day or so before really going anywhere due to the blocking ridge over New England which is preventing any movement northward. Later tomorrow and Monday Alberto should begin moving northward or northeastward towards the North Carolina coast, likely giving it a close brush or a brief landfall around Monday before curving out to sea east of the mid-Atlantic coast. Given that most of the weather is weighted on the northwest side of the storm, residents along the North and South Carolina coasts should expect heavy showers and the possibility of tropical storm force winds even if the track keeps Alberto a bit offshore. Alberto is tiny, so the heaviest impacts may be localized to a rather small swath.

Alberto does have some problems to face over the next couple of days that will likely limit intensification. A low to the northeast and a new low forecasted to develop to the southeast coming up from the Bahamas will probably steal low-level inflow from the eastern side, making it difficult to develop thunderstorms there. The northern low moving towards the mid-Atlantic coast will also start shoving dry continental air down at Alberto's northwestern side, which will likely start choking the system a bit, causing it to weaken when it begins moving northward. Sea surface temperatures are also only around 26C in Alberto's section of the Gulf Stream, and drop off by several degrees close to the coastline. While this can support a tropical storm and even a minimal hurricane in this thermodynamic environment, the other conditions involved make me believe that Alberto likely can't exceed a 60mph tropical storm, and a peak intensity between 50mph and 60mph is probable. Peak intensity should occur before any possible landfall, and Alberto will likely be weakening as it recurves.

Overall, Alberto is not a particularly significant or dangerous threat, but could bring tropical storm conditions to the North Carolina coastline as it brushes by or makes landfall there around Monday. This kind of situation was expected with this type of early-season setup, and the pattern delivered. After Alberto, the northwest Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico will have to be watched for the next focus of disturbed weather later next week and beyond.

We shall see what happens!

The Carolina Coastal Low continues to evolve. A key step in this process is for the upper low to stack on top of the surface low. It looks to me like this has now occurred. At least the low at 500mb (figure on left) has moved from its previous location over the Carolina's, and out over the ocean where it appears to be right over top of the surface low (figure on right).


(500mb Chart and MSL Pressure/Wind Chart)

Cyclonic turning can be detected on the visible satellite and even on radar. This little feature appeared on a visible satellite image today. It is hard to tell if it is a surface feature or an upper feature, but it is located in the area of the coastal low. I also included the full zoomed out shot of that area to help you form your own opinion of what that might be.


(Cyclonic Cloud Feature near the Carolina's)


(Zoomed Out Satellite Shot)

Computer models are not in favor of this system closing off a surface circulation. It still has to ween itself off of it's trough and fight off some wind shear, but it's probability of evolving has surely risen today. Regardless of what it becomes, it will likely keep the Carolina coastline wet and windy for this weekend. The NWS is expecting winds between 10 and 25 knots for Saturday.



The low in the Gulf of Honduras is still in the exact same spot, and is still lacking in any convection. With no real guidance, it is possible for that thing to sit down there and fester for a couple more days. The computer models are not supporting any development here. With 30 knots of wind shear, and possible land/sea breeze landmass interaction stealing away some of its moisture it won't have a great chance to grow until it gets out of there.


(Surface Low in the Gulf of Honduras)

In the Pacific, Tropical Depression Aletta is still clinging to life. Her circulation is good, but it is fairly empty of convection. There is a lot of dry air to her west that must be affecting her. She is also under attack from some moderate wind shear. Aletta may not survive the weekend.


(Tropical Depression Aletta)

Invest 92E suffered a bit of a setback today. The organization that had been occurring has stopped, and it is difficult to even locate it's center. The NHC has dropped the probability of this system becoming a cyclone in the next 48 hours down to 20%. Despite this setback, computer models are still enthusiastic about this systems development.


(Invest 92E)

A congratulations is in order for Dr. Rick Knabb. Today he was named the new Director of the National Hurricane Center. We watched him deliver expert analysis of tropical systems on the Weather Channel for the last 2 years. He was with the NHC for 8 years prior to that, and now he will take over for Bill Read of June 4th.


(Dr. Rick Knabb on The Weather Channel)

2 areas in the Atlantic that we have been watching for development have now started to spark some action. That spot in the Bay of Honduras that the GFS has been hinting at for a week has now blossomed a surface low. In the movie, you can actually see it spinning between cloud breaks just north of the coast of Honduras. The fact that the surface spin is actually visible is a clue to just how much wind shear is in that area.

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If this low tries to move northeast like the GFS indicated, it will be wandering into an even more hostile territory. There is 70 to 80 knot wind shear covering the Gulf, Cuba, and Florida at the moment. The GFS, and the Navy model no longer develop this system, but the Canadian does develop it through the Florida Straights much like the GFS did last week.


(Atlantic Wind Shear Analysis)

Another area does have a little more model support. All 3 global models are developing a surface low in this area near the Carolina Coast. As this spot slowly tries to organize, it will cause unpleasant conditions for the Outer Banks and the rest of Coastal Carolina. Cloudy skies and rain can be expected throughout the weekend along with rough seas, and windy conditions blowing from northeast to southwest along the coast. If the low does develop, it will likely move out to sea, at least initially.


(Developing Low along the Carolina Coast)

On the Pacific side, Tropical Depression Aletta has begun to move to the north-northeast, and is still a very weak system. The National Hurricane Center is expecting Aletta to transition into a post-tropical system by tomorrow evening.



(Tropical Depression Aletta)

There is plenty of activity along the convergence zone waiting to recycle Aletta's energy. Invest 92E is next in line. It has become just a bit better organized today, and the NHC has upgraded its probability of become a cyclone in the next 48 hours to 40%. The GFS still believes that 92E is a good candidate for Tropical Storm Bud sometime Sunday.



(Invest 92E)

With nothing expected to develop in the Atlantic in the next few days, the Pacific remains the focus. Tropical Storm Aletta is still maintaining her status as a weak tropical storm. Her central pressure has risen a notch to 1004 mb, and Aletta is forecast to continue to weaken over the next couple of days. The Hurricane Center has her downgraded to a depression sometime tomorrow morning. Just by looking at her presentation at the moment, I would expect that to happen on the next advisory at 2am. Aletta is forecast to gradually circle back to the east over the next 3 days where her remnants will likely be devoured by an oncoming tropical low.


(Tropical Storm Aletta)

That oncoming low has now been designated Invest 92E by the National Hurricane Center. You can see in the visible satellite loop below that there is nothing too spectacular to it at the moment, but it is starting to form a broad circulation with numerous thunderstorms surrounding the area where a surface circulation is likely beginning the process of closing off.


(Invest 92E)

The NHC is giving 92E a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Slow development is expected with this system as it is in favorable atmospheric conditions along with warm ocean temperatures. This Invest has an excellent chance of becoming Tropical Storm Bud before the weekend. The HWRF and the GFDL models have not been run on this Invest 92E just yet, but the GFS is very inthusiastic about this system so far, developing it into a strong tropical storm by Monday.

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Tropical Storm Aletta has been unable to organize her structure. She has her maximum sustained winds up to 45 mph and her minimum central pressure down to 1003 mb. But she remains just a blob of thunderstorms. The impressive infrared image below was taken by the new Suomi-NPP satellite. It's 350 meter resolution got a good look at some overshooting thunderstorm tops. I look forward to more great images from this satellite in the future.


(Tropical Storm Aletta Infrared)

Aletta is about out of time for further development, maybe just about 12 to 24 hours left in her run. Aletta looks like she might get stopped in her tracks and pulled back into the convergence zone were there is a new invest area waiting for a chance to shine. The area shown on the NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook circled in yellow has not been designated an official Invest yet, but it could at any time. If it is able to pull Aletta back towards it, the 2 systems could merge into 1. Western Mexico will probably take notice if Aletta turns back towards land, but she is not likely to make it to land in one piece.



Invest 92L is no longer being tracked by anyone. When I started searching satellite images for it, I came across this perplexing image in the Azores sector of NASA's Terra satellite. It shows dueling lows just south of the Azores Islands. They both appear to be surface lows spinning around each other with their tails connected in a yin and yang sort of way. The secondary low could have been there all along, or could have been born out of the original low (92L). A look at the water vapor in that area shows no sign of an upper low. The only upper low is well to the southwest of the Azores. Neither of these lows are a threat for development at this time.



(Twin Lows near the Azores)

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