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A Look At The Models; Hurricane Season Almost Over

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by on 11-25-2012 at 10:51 PM (870 Views)
We are five days from the end of hurricane season; November 30th. The tropics have been completely quiet throughout the Atlantic this entire month, and it looks to stay this way as we wrap the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season up. It has certainly been a season filled with tragedy and excitement.

Satellite view of Hurricane Sandy before passing over Cuba. The storm's highest wind speeds were recorded here, before the storm later passed on to slam into the northeast U.S.


The tally from the season stands:


19 Named Storms

10 Hurricanes

1 Major Hurricane(Hurricane Michael)


320 lives have unfortunately been lost, and damage is estimated to cost around $68 billion. Most of these come from the Hispaniola, Cuba, and the areas in the U.S. affected by Hurricane Sandy. This makes 3 consecutive seasons we have seen 19 tropical cyclones. Last year had 18 named, but post-season analysis by the National Hurricane Center found that an Invest area had enough to be a tropical storm. So it was declared a tropical storm after the season ended.



The Models



The ECMWF and CMC have switched things up a bit, and now show a possible low tracking west over the central Atlantic in almost a week from now. The ECMWF shows the system deeper then the CMC, and moving north to northwest around day 6-7. The CMC shows a weak system moving west-northwest under the influence of a high pressure area, as where the ECMWF has the low attaching to a trough and pulling out. With the CMC showing such a weak system, and the ECMWF showing a low becoming broader and moving north, it is most likely that nothing will form. If something does, it won't be tropical.

ECMWF at 168 hours showing the low, located at the top right section of this image.


I will keep an eye on the Atlantic still, regardless of what occurs between now and Friday. After December 1st I plan to begin blogging on winter storm systems moving across the U.S.

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Thanks all for stopping in today, hope you have a blessed week ahead of you!

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Comments

  1. libgoon's Avatar
    Hey!! Hope you had a good Holidays !!!
    Yeah, I see the euro and CMC have a Fish heading in a north east direction lol ..Nice Blog By the way.

    With regard to Winter storms, You would not mind if I just referred to them as a winter Storm ... and not by the name of some media outlet decide on, but I look forward to the blog.
  2. TropicalWxBlogger's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by libgoon
    Hey!! Hope you had a good Holidays !!!
    Yeah, I see the euro and CMC have a Fish heading in a north east direction lol ..Nice Blog By the way.

    With regard to Winter storms, You would not mind if I just referred to them as a winter Storm ... and not by the name of some media outlet decide on, but I look forward to the blog.
    I did have a good Thanksgiving, thanks. I hope you and everyone else did as well.
  3. libgoon's Avatar
    It was a normal day for me ..I dont live in the US but love watching the Atlantic Season
  4. InTheCone's Avatar
    Thanks TWX, I am looking forward to the off-season! Winter is usually pretty quiet here in SE Fl., unless a Nino materializes, then it can be wet, just have to wait and see what happens.
  5. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by libgoon
    Hey!! Hope you had a good Holidays !!!
    Yeah, I see the euro and CMC have a Fish heading in a north east direction lol ..Nice Blog By the way.

    With regard to Winter storms, You would not mind if I just referred to them as a winter Storm ... and not by the name of some media outlet decide on, but I look forward to the blog.
    I reserve the right to name a cloud anything I should happen to choose, be it winter, summer, spring or fall.

    Or possibly nothing like that at all.
  6. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by NavarreMark
    I reserve the right to name a cloud anything I should happen to choose, be it winter, summer, spring or fall.

    Or possibly nothing like that at all.
    LOL Mark ... I was referring to a certain media company not your Naming system ...
  7. TropicalWxBlogger's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by libgoon
    LOL Mark ... I was referring to a certain media company not your Naming system ...
    I do not favor any names by the media either, with an example being Hurricane Sandy. It was nothing more then a large, powerful, hurricane. Named Sandy. When the media gives the storms their own foolish names, it can be overhyping the storm because the public looks at the storm as a bad one since it got a name.
  8. libgoon's Avatar
    I agree with you on the media thing but Sandy was a different beast to your normal Cat 1 storm . I will contend that she was a hybrid by the time she hit 30N which lead to her expansion of windfield and lose of cold tops she pick up a warm front at that stage which kept her core warm and then she interacted with that massive front which gave her an extra burst of power which also stopped her going to sea. In my opinion there was nothing normal about Sandy, but that is only my opinion
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