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FLdewey

Weather January 7th 2012

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by on 12-24-2012 at 12:58 PM (28653 Views)
A quiet Monday, however a slight risk moves into Southern Texas Tuesday and crosses into LA on Wednesday.






24HR Snow forecast:

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Updated 01-07-2013 at 01:16 PM by FLdewey

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Tropical Weather , Winter Weather , General Weather , Storm Chasing

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  1. kaiden's Avatar
    Thanks for the update Dewey.

    Have a Merry Christmas.

    First.
  2. SQUAWK's Avatar
    REPORTED!!!!!
  3. kaiden's Avatar
    Now, later today and tomorrow.

    Last Update on Dec 24, 6:53 am CST

    Overcast
    64 °F(18 °C)
    Humidity: 90 %
    Wind Speed: S 10 G 17 MPH
    Barometer: 29.93" (1013.7 mb)
    Dewpoint: 61 °F (16 °C)
    Visibility: 10.00 mi.

    Today: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning...then slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

    Tonight: Partly cloudy with chance of showers in the evening... Then mostly cloudy with showers likely and chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Southeast winds to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

    Christmas Day: Showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds and tornadoes. Highs in the lower 70s. South winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

    Tuesday Night: Cooler. Thunderstorms and rain showers in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and tornadoes in the evening. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
  4. FLdewey's Avatar
    Did you see how he tried to sneak it in on the down low bird?

    He almost got away with it too.
  5. kaiden's Avatar
  6. libgoon's Avatar
    Nothing gets past SQUAWK !!!!
  7. SQUAWK's Avatar
    Nuttin!!!!
  8. libgoon's Avatar
  9. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by SQUAWK
    Nuttin!!!!

  10. libgoon's Avatar
    At the moment there seen a bit doomy in the panhandle

  11. Landfall2004's Avatar
    Good mornin' Dew and Bunker Buddies,

    Good to see Dew up and around on this lovely day in Fla.

    Everyone, have a Happy and SAFE holiday.
  12. SQUAWK's Avatar
    So..... now that I am in Tulsa, here is the picture for tomorrow. White Christmas for me..... YEA!!!



  13. libgoon's Avatar
  14. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by SQUAWK
    So..... now that I am in Tulsa, here is the picture for tomorrow. White Christmas for me..... YEA!!!
    I dont get the big excitment of snow ...its a hindrance JMO


    Hiya Landfall
  15. StAugustineFL's Avatar
    HWO out of Jackson, MS. Keep your peepers open MS and kaiden.


    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
    NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

    .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

    THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS
    DAY AND EVENING AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
    THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN
    EXCESS OF 70 MPH...QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP...
    PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO JACKSON
    AND DE KALB MISSISSIPPI LINE WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. A
    FEW STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP.
    HEAVY RAINFALL OF
    TWO TO THREE INCHES IS LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
  16. SQUAWK's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by libgoon
    I dont get the big excitment of snow ...its a hindrance JMO
    Hiya Landfall
    For some of us Lib, it is fun to play in and I think it makes the world look even prettier in the winter.

    As a kid, snow was always a time for fun and good food and just plain great times.

    I still like to play in it.

    ........ but in my big 4 wheel drive truck.
  17. atmoaggie's Avatar
    Yep, everyone is talking (b***chin) about the weather, here.
  18. atmoaggie's Avatar
    I'm just south of the Moderate area...by a parish (county).
  19. StAugustineFL's Avatar
    Mobile area:

    ... Significant increase in severe weather forecast from early Christmas morning
    through the evening hours...

    A powerful low pressure system will move across northern Mississippi
    and Alabama on Christmas day... bringing a strong cold front across
    the area. Unseasonably warm... moist and unstable air will be injected
    from the Gulf of Mexico into the southeast states ahead of the front.
    Your National Weather Service office in Mobile has found that there
    is a substantial risk of severe weather in southeast
    Mississippi... southwest Alabama... and the western Florida Panhandle
    on Christmas day.

    Latest computer model guidance continues to indicate scattered strong
    to severe thunderstorms developing through Christmas morning and
    afternoon. There is a risk of these storms producing tornadoes during
    the day with some tornadoes possibly strong. In addition... large
    hail with these storms is likely.

    By late afternoon... a line of thunderstorms will form out west along
    the Interstate 59 corridor in Mississippi. The line of thunderstorms
    will race eastward... reaching the Interstate 65 corridor by early
    Christmas evening and east of a Brantley... Luverne to Destin line by
    midnight. The primary severe weather concern along the squall line
    will be damaging straight line winds of 60 to 80 mph... large
    hail... and isolated tornadoes.

    The threat of severe weather is expected to end during the predawn
    hours Wednesday as the strong cold front clears the area.


    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Nawlins area

    ... Severe weather outbreak likely Christmas day...

    Confidence continues to increase that a potent weather system
    will impact the area tonight and tomorrow... Christmas
    day... bringing with it a threat of widespread severe weather.

    A cold front will move through the area and stall near the coast
    later today. A few thunderstorms will be possible as the front
    moves through the area... and while widespread severe weather is
    not expected... one or two storms could become strong to severe.

    The main severe weather threat will begin late tonight and
    Tuesday morning as the stalled front moves northward again
    as a warm front. As a surface low moves northeastward... the warm
    front will move farther inland and a cold front will surge
    toward the area from the west. Any thunderstorms that develop
    behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front will be
    capable of becoming severe.

    The Storm Prediction Center is currently indicating a moderate risk
    of severe weather for areas along and north of a line extending from
    Baton Rouge to Poplarville... .and a slight risk of severe weather
    for the remainder of the area. The main threats from any severe
    weather will be damaging straight line winds and isolated
    tornadoes. Large hail will be possible... but is less likely.

    There is also at least some risk of significant severe weather
    across the region... defined as strong tornadoes or winds greater
    than 75 miles per hour. This threat would be primarily during the
    afternoon and evening hours of Christmas day and mainly limited
    to areas that are north of the Interstate 10 and 12 corridor.

    Severe weather will continue to be possible until the cold front
    sweeps through the area late Tuesday evening. Please take this time to
    review your severe weather plan and continue to monitor future
    forecasts and outlooks for the latest information concerning this
    potentially significant severe weather outbreak.
  20. atmoaggie's Avatar
    I see a fresher one for Nawlins area:

    SHORT TERM...
    THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
    SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. TODAYS
    FORECAST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THIS EVENT. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
    SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA.
    THIS IS A RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
    THIS LOW WILL ALSO CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
    AREA THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IT STALLS ACROSS THE
    FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. CURRENTLY THIS FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS THE
    ARKLATEX REGION SURGING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT
    WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
    MORNING BUT IT WILL ALSO BRING SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF
    THE ATMOSPHERE AS IT MOVES IN. THIS COULD DAMPEN CONVECTION
    ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MENTION A
    CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY BUT AFTER THE
    INITIAL PUSH FROM THE FRONT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
    CONVECTION UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
    EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

    AS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PORTIONS OF
    THE FORECAST AREA IN MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON CHRISTMAS
    DAY. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ALL OF
    THE SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDING THE CITY OF MCCOMB
    AND ESSENTIALLY ALL AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10/12 IN LOUISIANA.
    ALL OTHER AREAS OF OUR CWA ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK. A DEEPENING
    SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT OUT OF TEXAS ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE
    TRENDED A LITTLE BIT SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
    BUT STILL EXPECTING ALL OF THIS TO UNFOLD CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND
    EARLY EVENING.

    ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE ON THE TABLE BUT THE TWO GREATEST
    CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
    TORNADOES. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BEING SO FAVORABLE THE POSSIBILITY
    OF STRONG TORNADOES...EF-2 OR GREATER ARE A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS
    SYSTEM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON CHRISTMAS
    DAY. JUST LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PROJECTED INDICES FOR
    HELICITY...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST THIS AS WELL.
    INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000
    TO 1500 J/KG RANGE ON CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
    BE APPROACHING THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE...0-1KM AND 0-3KM STORM
    RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES BOTH OVER 200 M2/S2 ARE MORE THAN
    SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES.

    THE MAIN THINKING FOR HOW THIS EVENT MAY UNFOLD WOULD BE A SEVERE
    SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS
    TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT
    ROLLS THROUGH. AGAIN WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BEING PRIME FOR
    DEVELOPMENT A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE
    OF THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE MOST
    LIKELY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...A FEW OF THESE COULD BE OF STRONG LONG
    LIVED TYPE TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR THOSE SIGNIFICANT TYPE STORMS WILL
    BE MORE LIKELY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10/12 WHERE THE ENHANCED
    MODERATE RISK IS IN PLACE. ONE COULD GO ON ABOUT HOW ALL THE
    INDICIES STACK UP BUT THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS TO PAY VERY CLOSE
    ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER SITUATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

    THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A COLD
    AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
    PLUNGE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND
    HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
    STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES TO
    THE AREA. 13/MH
  21. StAugustineFL's Avatar
    As Dewey would say........moistcha!

  22. StAugustineFL's Avatar
    Thanks Atmo. I didn't pull the discussion from the NWS office but rather the severe weather alerts page on another site. Maybe that's where they get their data from anyway. I dunno. Any way you slice and dice it, it's going to be a bumpy day.
  23. atmoaggie's Avatar


  24. atmoaggie's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by StAugustineFL
    Thanks Atmo. I didn't pull the discussion from the NWS office but rather the severe weather alerts page on another site. Maybe that's where they get their data from anyway. I dunno. Any way you slice and dice it, it's going to be a bumpy day.
    Sure is. I feel for those oblivious people that will be plying the highways (impaired, of course) to get back home from Grandma's late on Christmas day.

    Today, we're going over to Baton Rouge, but coming back home this evening. Tomorrow, we'll not go more than 10 miles from home. Nor be asking anyone else to do so.
  25. atmoaggie's Avatar
    Moistcha!



    24 hour precipitable water.
  26. libgoon's Avatar
    umm I thought it was the south dry season
  27. atmoaggie's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by libgoon
    umm I thought it was the south dry season
    For peninsula Florida, it is.
    For me, this is the wettest season. (Not "wet season", as I don't have a dry season.)
  28. atmoaggie's Avatar
    Well, among the wettest, about tied with summer.


    Or, in mm, and completely different for some reason:


    Not sure why the difference. Different year range for the climate averages, maybe.
  29. libgoon's Avatar
    I didnt realise that MS/LA had a different climate type to Florida thanks Atmo
  30. StAugustineFL's Avatar
    We're pretty dry here Nov - May (aside from March) but December's been more indicative of an El Nino. 5.91" month to date.

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