atmoaggie

NOGAPS no more

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on 01-24-2013 at 03:09 PM (832 Views)

I commented about it last month, but it was a busy time and at the end of comments of a quickly replaced blog. (Was someone miffed? Nah.)

In tropical weather news, NOGAPS is no more (or soon will be). Replaced by a new model, NAVGEM. Not sure what skill score studies have been done, yet...
Further, this will be the boundary and initial conditions for the NGFDL and COAMPS.

Customers of the NOGAPS model,

As the science of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) has evolved, Naval
Research Lab (NRL) Monterey has been working on a new state of the
science global model to take Navy modeling to the next generation.
Transitioning to the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) is already
underway here at Fleet Numerical. In order to ensure the transition is
as smooth as possible for our customers, we are hosting a realtime
NAVGEM data feed available via our beta CAGIPS and METCAST service. We
are making this data available to customers so they can begin testing
software/applications with the NAVGEM data sets to verify this
transition will not negatively impact any processes/applications you may
be running. To further minimize impacts to any of our customer's
downstream applications, the NAVGEM grid resolution and format will
remain the same as the existing NOGAPS data sets; however, the file
names and data subscriptions will change during this transition.
Beta NAVGEM data is available through our SIPR/NIPR beta CAGIPS and
METCAST servers. Please take advantage of this data to run your own
data assimilation testing. Instructions on how to access this data,
examples of the new data headers and a "FAQ"/general information page
are available on FNMOC's NIPR/SIPR webpage:

https://nepoc.oceanography.navy.mil/...web/fnmoc/home
http://nepoc.oceanography.navy.smil....web/fnmoc/home

As the operational transition from NOGAPS to NAVGEM progresses, updated
information (to include updated transition timelines) will be posted to
the web pages (above) and we will periodically send e-mail
notifications/updates to registered CAGIPS and METCAST users.

For your information, all METCAST NOGAPS subscriptions on our NIPR/SIPR
beta systems have already been transitioned to NAVGEM. This transition
was done at the server level and required no intervention from the user.
This same, automatic transition will happen on the operational METCAST
server during the one month transition period. Operational METCAST
users will automatically be switched from NOGAPS to NAVGEM. The date for
transition will be sent later.

To aid CAGIPS users during this transition, FNMOC will automatically
create a new, duplicate subscription for any CAGIPS users who currently
subscribe to NOGAPS grids and replace your NOGAPS datasets with NAVGEM
grids. Please note, the new NAVGEM subscriptions will remain "inactive"
until activated by the user. Once NAVGEM has been promoted to our
Operational system, our CAGIPS customers will be able to receive both
NAVGEM and NOGAPS datasets for approximately one month (DUAL OPS). This
timeframe should allow our Operational CAGIPS users to finalize their
own transition schedule prior to removal of NOGAPS from OPS. Once NOGAPS
is removed from our Operational system, users who haven't transitioned
to their new NAVGEM subscription will cease to receive global NWP data.

If you require a dissemination method other than CAGIPS and METCAST for
your testing, please do not hesitate to contact us. Our goal is to make
this seamless to all Fleet Numerical customers.
Please note: The following output issues have been identified during our
optest and are being addressed:

- Very light precipitation is over predicted

- Cloud type/precipitation mechanism mismatches. We see that the cloud
type and precipitation mechanism are occasionally inconsistent.
(Stable/convective precipitation with no stable/convective clouds)

- CAPE values are 0.

- tropopause level (geopotential height) is not available.

The current dates for transition are:

AVAILABLE NOW - BOTH NAVGEM AND NOGAPS DATA IS CURRENTLY AVAILABLE VIA
FNMOC'S NIPR/SIPR BETA CAGIPS SYSTEMS. METCAST USERS
ONLY HAVE ACCESS TO NAVGEM DATA VIA THE BETA METCAST
SERVICE.

FEB 13, 2013 - (DUAL OPS) BOTH NAVGEM AND NOGAPS DATA WILL BE
AVAILABLE TO OPERATIONAL CUSTOMERS ON THE OPS SERVER.

MAR 13, 2013 - TRANSITION FROM NOGAPS TO NAVGEM COMPLETE. NOGAPS
MODEL WILL BE REMOVED FROM OPERATIONS.

After Mar 13, 2013, NOGAPS data will no longer be available on any
system hosted at Fleet Numerical (NIPR OR SIPR).

So far, I have not seen any publicly accessible plots of NAVGEM data on the internet. The URLs above are useless to us mere civilians. If you've found some, please share. Presumably there will be some.
As well, presumably, the NHC files of vortex track forecasts (the data behind all spaghetti plots, everywhere) will be updated or NAVGEM will simply replace NOGAPS with the same format data under the same code...but I've found no info about that, either.

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Categories: ‎ Tropical Weather

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Comments

NavarreMark - 01-24-2013 03:14 PM
Member
FILTH!!!
atmoaggie - 01-24-2013 03:15 PM
Member
Covington, LA
Definitely reported for that...
libgoon - 01-24-2013 03:15 PM
just wants to have fun
somewhere over the pond
LMAO
libgoon - 01-24-2013 03:19 PM
just wants to have fun
somewhere over the pond
i sure hope that the NOGAPS is wrong at the moment.....
FtMyersgal - 01-24-2013 03:21 PM
I don't brake for trolls
Fort Myers FL
So is this change supposed to be an improvement? Anybody??
libgoon - 01-24-2013 03:23 PM
just wants to have fun
somewhere over the pond
Originally Posted by FtMyersgal

So is this change supposed to be an improvement? Anybody??

I dont know but It was not great last year ......really hope its the same this week... But It will Improve I imagine cant do any worse than it did ...oh it could be the CMC
NavarreMark - 01-24-2013 03:24 PM
Member
Originally Posted by NavarreMark

FILTH!!!

I've been done wrong.
FtMyersgal - 01-24-2013 03:32 PM
I don't brake for trolls
Fort Myers FL
Originally Posted by libgoon

I dont know but It was not great last year ......really hope its the same this week... But It will Improve I imagine cant do any worse than it did ...oh it could be the CMC

LOL, NOGAPS has not been good for a few years. Used to be pretty right on. If I believed the CMC I'd be living on Xanax during the hurricane season
SQUAWK - 01-24-2013 03:33 PM
Site Supporter
King George, Virginia
Originally Posted by NavarreMark

I've been done wrong.

DAMN AUTOCORRECT!!!!
libgoon - 01-24-2013 03:35 PM
just wants to have fun
somewhere over the pond
Originally Posted by FtMyersgal

LOL, NOGAPS has not been good for a few years. Used to be pretty right on. If I believed the CMC I'd be living on Xanax during the hurricane season

Thats because IMO the CMC factor in (wishcast ) a canadian hit everytime..JMO
SQUAWK - 01-24-2013 03:35 PM
Site Supporter
King George, Virginia
Hey Atmo, thanks for the info.

I don't spend time with the models because I don't really know how to use them, nor do I want to.

I am just happy having the peeps that do like using them tell me what they think is going to happen.
NavarreMark - 01-24-2013 03:40 PM
Member
Originally Posted by libgoon

Thats because IMO the CMC factor in (wishcast ) a canadian hit everytime..JMO

I'm thinking of developing a CaymanGaps model for the sole purpose of bringing the Wunderkid to ecstacy.
atmoaggie - 01-24-2013 03:44 PM
Member
Covington, LA
There are certain scenarios in which NOGAPS did well, though more often would be last to "tighten up" with other track forecasts of a landfalling TC.
One good NOGAPS performance I remember is Irene. All NOAA models were still brushing past the Florida Peninsula and into South Carolina, but NOGAPS and NGFDL latched onto a more straight-to-North Carolina solution. The others joined about a day later.
libgoon - 01-24-2013 03:45 PM
just wants to have fun
somewhere over the pond
Originally Posted by NavarreMark

I'm thinking of developing a CaymanGaps model for the sole purpose of bringing the Wunderkid to ecstacy.

I think he might be in the process of doing it himself ...
Scooster67 - 01-24-2013 04:18 PM
29.9° N 82.7° W
Fort White FL.
there shoud be no more gaps in the models........
InTheCone - 01-24-2013 05:07 PM
Site Supporter
Palm Beach Gardens, FL.
Originally Posted by Scooster67

there shoud be no more gaps in the models........

Nice!

Thanks for the update Atmo, I do remember your post about this from that distant blog. I just hope this gives Lib and I another worthy contender in the model watching daytime drama series "As the Cane Swirls". Nothing like another good model to keep us jumping out of our seats
libgoon - 01-24-2013 05:10 PM
just wants to have fun
somewhere over the pond
Originally Posted by InTheCone

Nice!

Thanks for the update Atmo, I do remember your post about this from that distant blog. I just hope this gives Lib and I another worthy contender in the model watching daytime drama series "As the Cane Swirls". Nothing like another good model to keep us jumping out of our seats

I love the entertainment until I get the gut feeling...... I got in October .....
InTheCone - 01-24-2013 05:26 PM
Site Supporter
Palm Beach Gardens, FL.
Originally Posted by libgoon

I love the entertainment until I get the gut feeling...... I got in October .....

Yeah, that is always going to be the consequence of avid model watching, sometimes those bad storms are just going to hit people. It's hard to watch when you sense it coming and there's not a thing you can do about it. All you can hope for is that the people listen to the warnings and take proper precautions.

I know that one really bothered you as you felt all along it was going to hit somebody bad. Hopefully none of the storms this year will get your "Cane Sense" into overdrive and there will be no bad hits. Time will tell!
FtMyersgal - 01-24-2013 05:28 PM
I don't brake for trolls
Fort Myers FL
Originally Posted by InTheCone

Yeah, that is always going to be the consequence of avid model watching, sometimes those bad storms are just going to hit people. It's hard to watch when you sense it coming and there's not a thing you can do about it. All you can hope for is that the people listen to the warnings and take proper precautions.

I know that one really bothered you as you felt all along it was going to hit somebody bad. Hopefully none of the storms this year will get your "Cane Sense" into overdrive and there will be no bad hits. Time will tell!

I hope you are right Cone. I like tracking Canes but don't enjoy the landfall part, no matter where it is..
InTheCone - 01-24-2013 05:38 PM
Site Supporter
Palm Beach Gardens, FL.
Originally Posted by FtMyersgal

I hope you are right Cone. I like tracking Canes but don't enjoy the landfall part, no matter where it is..

I'm with you, FM! I hate the nasty landfalls, no matter where they are, just too much misery for everyone involved
libgoon - 01-24-2013 07:40 PM
just wants to have fun
somewhere over the pond
Just asking Does anyone have a wave height or surge prediction chart for the atlantic ?
FtMyersgal - 01-24-2013 07:41 PM
I don't brake for trolls
Fort Myers FL
Is this what you are looking for?

Wave Model - North Atlantic Sea Height (STORMSURF)
atmoaggie - 01-24-2013 07:42 PM
Member
Covington, LA
Originally Posted by libgoon

Just asking Does anyone have a wave height or surge prediction chart for the atlantic ?

Wave heights at 57 hours:

Get more here: NWW3 Product Viewer
atmoaggie - 01-24-2013 07:49 PM
Member
Covington, LA
Ya, same data as FMG's link. Feet or meters?
libgoon - 01-24-2013 07:49 PM
just wants to have fun
somewhere over the pond
Thank you both so much
FtMyersgal - 01-24-2013 07:57 PM
I don't brake for trolls
Fort Myers FL
Welcome Liz.
libgoon - 01-24-2013 07:59 PM
just wants to have fun
somewhere over the pond
Well the waves wont make it as far as me.
FtMyersgal - 01-24-2013 08:02 PM
I don't brake for trolls
Fort Myers FL
That's great! Be sure to bookmark that link. I'm sure you will want to check it a few more times this year
NavarreMark - 01-24-2013 08:21 PM
Member
Originally Posted by atmoaggie

Ya, same data as FMG's link. Feet or meters?

Good question. Its what I was wondering and can make a big difference.

I wonder if they sell Cheetohs in Ireland or Slim Jims. I'm sure they must have vienna sausages in BBQ sauce. They wouldn't be a civilized people if they didn't have at least those.
FtMyersgal - 01-24-2013 08:25 PM
I don't brake for trolls
Fort Myers FL
Originally Posted by atmoaggie

Ya, same data as FMG's link. Feet or meters?

I'm no expert in reading this stuff but I think the legend says feet