Weather Data
SuperYooper
Weather January 27th
by
on 01-27-2013 at 04:38 PM (525 Views)
A warmup in store starting today, going through Wednesday.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1154 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013
MADE A MINOR TWEAK TO THE GOING HEADLINES TO ADD BARAGA COUNTY
INTO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY. MOST 12Z RUNS HAVE MADE A SHIFT TO THE
NW WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF...LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ALONG THE STRONG H850-700 WAA NEAR THE
IOWA/NEBRASKA/SD/MN BORDER. LATEST TRACK FROM THE MODELS WOULD PUSH
THIS NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN AND INTO THE
IRON/MARQUETTE/DICKINSON AND SOUTHEAST BARAGA COUNTIES TONIGHT.
THUS...FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD THEM IN. THIS SHIFT ALSO LEADS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS IN THAT SAME AREA...DUE TO THE
ENHANCED FGEN/WAA THAT SLIGHTLY PIVOTS THROUGH THERE. HAVE MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/QPF/SNOW FOR THE LATEST TRENDS AND WILL ALSO
ISSUE AN SPS FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON COUNTIES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ADVISORY AMOUNTS.
PREVIOUS UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST OVER EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TO
ADD A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING
4KFT POCKET OF DRY AIR FROM 3-7KFT THAT IS JUST THICK ENOUGH TO
LIMIT THE SEEDER/FEEDER PROCESS AT THIS TIME NEAR KERY. FARTHER
WEST IN SCNTRL UPPER MI...THE RETURNS ON RADAR ARE INDICATING THE
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THAT AREA MOVING TOWARDS KISQ.
THIS HAS LED TO -SN BEING REPORTED THERE AND EXPECT THAT TO SHIFT
EAST FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARDS KERY. BUT...ONCE THAT DEPARTS...WILL
LIKELY SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR AREAS SEEING LOW CLOUDS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS GENERATED A BAND OF RAIN IN REGION OF STRONG
700 MB FGEN STRETCHING ACROSS SRN NEBRASKA INTO WRN MISSOURI AS
NOTED ON NATIONAL RADAR LOOP. MODELS INDICATE THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE
AND ASSOC FGEN FORCING WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY WET
SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.
TODAY...SOME WEAK 290K WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW ALONG THE WI BDR EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW ISENTROPIC
LIFT GENERALLY WEAKENING THIS MORNING OVER SCNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION...A DUSTING AT BEST. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING CLOUDING UP LATER THIS AFTERNOOON
WITH ADVANCE OF CENTRAL PLAINS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT...ATTENTION FOCUSES ON STRONG SHORTWAVE FAST APPROACHING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS AREA OF STRONG 700 FGEN MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...TARGETING THE CENTRAL AND ERN FCST AREA FOR MODERATE TO
POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES TONIGHT. AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE TODAY
...MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A SHALLOW STREAM OF GULF
MOISTURE. THE SHALLOW MOISTURE FEED...WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
WAVE AND 700 MB FGEN FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF PCPN SHIFTING
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE TO 200-300PCT OF NORMAL SO WITH ASSOC STRONG
FORCING AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS...WE SHOULD SEE SOME DECENT PCPN
AMOUNTS. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED ALONG WITH LOCAL WRF-ARW AND 06Z NAM
MODELS WHICH SEEM TO FOCUS HEAVIER PCPN ALONG AND SOUTH OF PROJECTED
STRONG 700 MB FGEN SIGNAL. BELIEVE GFS MODEL MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR NW
WITH PCPN GIVEN WHERE BEST FORCING IS FCST TO BE. MOST MODELS SHOW
PCPN AMOUNTS FROM .2 TO .4 INCHES WITH GENERALLY THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS SCNTRL AND EAST. PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE AS GFS MODEL HAS
850MB TEMPS RISING AOA 0C BTWN 06-12Z OVER SCNTRL FCST AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH WETBULB PROFILE GENERALLY BLO 0C...SEEMS LIKELY THAT
TEMP PROFILE WILL QUICKLY FALL SUBZERO DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS
WELL AS DYNAMIC COOLING. WILL CONTINUE WITH PLAN FOR MOSTLY SNOW
TONIGHT.
MODELS INDICATE 295K SFC WITH MIXING RATIOS AROUND
4G/KG...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE MAX
ASCENT OCCURS. SINCE DURATION OF PCPN WILL PROBABLY BE MORE LIKE
9HRS...HIGH END SNOW TOTALS COULD APPROACH 6 INCHES IF MAX FORCING
IS REALIZED. WILL PAINT THE HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE SE FCST AREA
WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THIS FCST.
INCLUDED MQT-IRON COUNTIES EASTWARD IN A WINTER WX ADVISORY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT 1-3 INCHES NW OF THIS LINE. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF SNOW AREA...PCPN MAY TRANSITION TO SOME -FZDZ SW TO NE
MON MORNING AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE PULLS OUT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EST SUN JAN 27 2013
AT 12Z MONDAY A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S...WITH A SMALL BUT VERY
SIGNIFICANT WAVE STRETCHING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO N WI. THE LARGER
TROUGH WILL BE SET UP FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH ID AND S CA. ZONAL
FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN TO SW FLOW ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE NEARING WESTERN TROUGH. THE VAIL OF PRECIP OVERHEAD MONDAY
MORNING WILL QUICKLY EXIT EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND/OR SNOW AT THE TAIL END. WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO
3-5C NEAR THE WI BORDER...AS SFC TEMPS JUMP ABOVE FREEZING /33-37F/.
EXPECT THE N END OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN MONDAY TO CLOSE
OFF OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA MONDAY NIGHT...AND DEEPEN ACROSS ONTARIO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW ALL THE WAY
THROUGH TX. SOME UNCERTAINLY REMAIN IN THE MERGING OF THE N AND S
STREAM TROUGHS...WITH THE SFC REFLECTIONS OVER W ONTARIO AND NE KS
AT 06Z TUESDAY. THESE 2 SFC LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE NEAR THE CWA
TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE QUICKLY
EJECTING NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY. S FLOW OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ACROSS AREAS TO S MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUGH OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
HIGH TEMPS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE SLOW COOL DOWN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY COULD ALSO BE A BIT
BREEZY AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND THE EXITING LOW.
THE PROGRESSIVE 500MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NEAR JAMES BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE U.S. THIS
WILL BRING THE RETURN OF NW FLOW ALOFT...FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE SEVERAL
DIFFICULT TO TIME WAVES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...AND BEYOND...AS WELL AS A RETURN TO NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND -20C
WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND CONTINUE TO FALL TO -22 TO -25C FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE W FACING
SLOPES OF W UPPER MI...AND AREAS E OF MUNISING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW GIVEN THE NW WINDS. SFC-850MB WINDS
SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY...SLOWLY PUSHING THE BEST CHANCE
OF CONTINUED LES N TO THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND JUST
OFFSHORE ACROSS E UPPER MI.
&&
Tags:
None
- Categories
- Uncategorized
Email Blog Entry
Go to Profile
Mark as Read
