libgoon

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME NERN TX...NRN
LA...EXTREME SERN OK...MOST OF AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN
TN AND NWRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND A PORTION OF
THE OH VALLEY...

...NERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY WRN TN AND SWRN OH VALLEY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IT STILL APPEARS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS.

SFC LOW OVER NERN OK WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. INTENSE 60-70 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AS LOW-MID 60S
DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTED NWD THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM SHV AND LZK ALREADY INDICATE LOW 60S NEAR SFC
DEWPOINTS AND WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH AN INVERSION
AROUND 700 MB. THIS INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE ELIMINATED AS THE
ATMOSPHERE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATE
EVIDENCE OF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING THROUGH ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

SQUALL LINE FROM ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/SWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AXIS.
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...BOWING SEGMENTS AND MESO-VORTICES APPEAR
LIKELY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. OTHER ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE WITHIN THE MOISTENING
WARM SECTOR AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 01/29/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013/

...ERN OK/TX TO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITHIN THE LARGE TROUGH...A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET...WILL EJECT
ENEWD TOWARD ERN OK/NW AR/MO OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN N CENTRAL OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
MO/IL TO LOWER MI...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD MOIST SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM ERN
TX/OK TO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...TO
56-60 F FARTHER N INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL EWD EXPANSION OF THE MOIST
SECTOR IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS/TN AND LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPEN CYCLONE AND A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO NRN MO. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE
PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE S AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL
BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS E TX AND SE
OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER TO THE E AND NE.
THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. FARTHER N...CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A
RISK OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND TORNADOES.

THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEGINNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE
ARKLATEX...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION FORMS WITHIN ONE OR MORE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS
NEAR THE MS RIVER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG WITHIN A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
THOUGH MLCAPE MAY ONLY REACH 500-750 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-700
M2/S2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 70-80 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH FAST-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT WILL
BECOME A WELL-FORMED SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHERE 80+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL COINCIDE WITH
AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.

Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)


PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID
SOUTH...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID SOUTH...AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

MUCH OF ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID
SOUTH...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE AND INDIVIDUAL STORMS CROSS THIS
AREA...CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..COHEN.. 01/29/2013

$$

FIRST!!!!!!!!

(NON BLOG AUTHOR)

Originally Posted by SQUAWK

FIRST!!!!!!!!

(NON BLOG AUTHOR)

Reported

I have been informed this is the PUPPYDAR

I dont think this one has been Christened yet but MSG take care

Mobile or as christened Disasterdar

Bit of a debate about the name of this one...........

Great Stuff Lib......Thanks

Morderate risk. Kinda like throwing a ring into the fires of Mordor.

Nice work on the South blog lib.

Originally Posted by SuperYooper

Morderate risk. Kinda like throwing a ring into the fires of Mordor.

Nice work on the South blog lib.

seeing the southerns are all MIA . Thought someone better do it

And thanks guys !!!!

MSG-- Keep your wits about you

Kai and the Panhandlers

chasers via IMAP

Nice work here, Lib. Hopefully the 'Naders will stay away. Haven't seen MSG today, hope she's paying attention.

Originally Posted by libgoon

seeing the southerns are all MIA . Thought someone better do it

And thanks guys !!!!

Knowing that lib is Irish and maybe doesn't know all of our colloquialisms, not sure which MIA she means. Maybe this one? MIA - Misfits in Action (World Championship Wrestling)

Good blog, though. Tornado alley tonight, dixie alley tomorrow.

Now:

Originally Posted by SuperYooper

Morderate risk. Kinda like throwing a ring into the fires of Mordor.

.

Spelling not my strongest point ....and thankfully you are the only one,of the ones that picks on me that noticed the mistake ..... Must fix title now!!!!

Originally Posted by atmoaggie

Knowing that lib is Irish and maybe doesn't know all of our colloquialisms, not sure which MIA she means. Maybe this one? MIA - Misfits in Action (World Championship Wrestling)

MIA Missing in Action but it could stand for that too !! .....thanks for the praise



Cone Thanks

The Arkansas nado text shows the first time I've seen the dual-pol radar being used for debris cloud spotting in an operational sense.

SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO ... DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SUGGESTED DEBRIS IN THE AIR ... EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TREES DOWN. (TSA)

(Prolly done before, but I didn't see it.)

Originally Posted by atmoaggie

The Arkansas nado text shows the first time I've seen the dual-pol radar being used for debris cloud spotting in an operational sense.

SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO ... DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SUGGESTED DEBRIS IN THE AIR ... EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TREES DOWN. (TSA)

(Prolly done before, but I didn't see it.)

Na it might be the first time you seen it ... the northerns got Dual-Pol first, can't understand why ? as ya would think Tornado alley would have been the priority ....

Well....look at lil Lib go !!!!!!...........Thank you very much for this blog....Terrific job and everything is here You have become really really good at this....and I mean that sincerely......I have been and am still watching the Chasers....at this time they are merging somewhat toward the river area...a litttle NW of me....the worst weather is expected in the early morn hours.....and Timmer is on his way.......

Lib, I just got in. Thanks for the blog, good job, it has just about everything I need.

Just had the first sprinkle of rain. We have had gusty southerly winds all afternoon.

Oh..forgot the Chaser Link...ChaserTV Wall | ChaserTV......

MSGAL, stay alert tonight. It looks like it will be down here about 8 in the morning, which means I will have to drive the little lady to work.

Oh and since Timmer isnt free anymore....I'll give him a couple of Libs.........next thing we know Cantore's gonna be charging....

Originally Posted by kaiden

MSGAL, stay alert tonight. It looks like it will be down here about 8 in the morning, which means I will have to drive the little lady to work.

Same to you, Kaiden ....its sure is was nice to see this expertly done blog....cheers to the lil Irish gal !!!!!!!!!!!!

Atmo....keep ya head above water down there.....wouldn't want the southern superbrain to get waterlogged....

Originally Posted by MSGAL

Same to you, Kaiden ....its sure is was nice to see this expertly done blog....cheers to the lil Irish gal !!!!!!!!!!!!

I could not agree more.

Originally Posted by MSGAL

Oh and since Timmer isnt free anymore....I'll give him a couple of Libs.........next thing we know Cantore's gonna be charging....

Sure they always go where the storms aren't.....

BTW Thank you all for the kind words .