View RSS Feed

libgoon

Moderate Risk Tuesday -Wednesday

Rate this Entry
by on 01-29-2013 at 07:45 PM (938 Views)
Had a bit of free time ....Actually going stir crazy with my own weather . I notice some of you guys are in for a difficult 24 HRS so I thought I would do this blog as his lordship is MIA




[B]Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image[/B]

Loop Embedded
l

Unisys Radar



Submit "Moderate Risk Tuesday -Wednesday" to Twitter Submit "Moderate Risk Tuesday -Wednesday" to Facebook

Updated 01-30-2013 at 12:08 AM by libgoon

Tags: None Add / Edit Tags
Categories
Uncategorized

Comments

Page 1 of 5 1 2 3 ... LastLast
  1. libgoon's Avatar
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0156 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

    VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

    ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME NERN TX...NRN
    LA...EXTREME SERN OK...MOST OF AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN
    TN AND NWRN MS...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
    PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND A PORTION OF
    THE OH VALLEY...

    ...NERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY WRN TN AND SWRN OH VALLEY...

    NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IT STILL APPEARS THAT A
    SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
    VALLEY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY THIS
    EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...A
    FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS.

    SFC LOW OVER NERN OK WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS
    VALLEY WITHIN EXIT REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET ROUNDING THE
    BASE OF THE TROUGH. INTENSE 60-70 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH
    THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AS LOW-MID 60S
    DEWPOINTS ARE ADVECTED NWD THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE 18Z
    SOUNDINGS FROM SHV AND LZK ALREADY INDICATE LOW 60S NEAR SFC
    DEWPOINTS AND WEAK SFC BASED INSTABILITY...BUT WITH AN INVERSION
    AROUND 700 MB. THIS INVERSION WILL LIKELY BE ELIMINATED AS THE
    ATMOSPHERE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
    DOWNSTREAM FROM THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATE
    EVIDENCE OF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING THROUGH ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS
    VALLEY.

    SQUALL LINE FROM ERN OK THROUGH CNTRL/SWRN TX IS EXPECTED TO
    INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS EAST AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST AXIS.
    EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...BOWING SEGMENTS AND MESO-VORTICES APPEAR
    LIKELY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. OTHER ORGANIZED
    SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE WITHIN THE MOISTENING
    WARM SECTOR AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INTENSIFYING LLJ ACROSS A
    PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND WRN TN TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
    STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
    TORNADOES.

    ..DIAL.. 01/29/2013

    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013/

    ...ERN OK/TX TO THE MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
    A LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
    EWD OVER THE LOWER PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
    WITHIN THE LARGE TROUGH...A PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN
    HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT MIDLEVEL JET...WILL EJECT
    ENEWD TOWARD ERN OK/NW AR/MO OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...AN ASSOCIATED
    SURFACE CYCLONE NOW IN N CENTRAL OK WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
    MO/IL TO LOWER MI...ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
    MEANWHILE...A BROAD MOIST SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED FROM ERN
    TX/OK TO THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
    DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE NW GULF COAST...TO
    56-60 F FARTHER N INTO MO/IL. ADDITIONAL EWD EXPANSION OF THE MOIST
    SECTOR IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS/TN AND LOWER OH
    VALLEY REGION...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPEN CYCLONE AND A
    STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ.

    WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
    COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL OK TO NRN MO. THOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ARE
    PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONTINUED MOISTURE
    ADVECTION FROM THE S AND MODEST SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL
    BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS E TX AND SE
    OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER BUOYANCY FARTHER TO THE E AND NE.
    THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS THAT ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
    WILL DEVELOP FROM NE TX INTO SE OK/WRN AR AND EVENTUALLY SRN MO THIS
    AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
    FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR TORNADOES AND
    DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR. FARTHER N...CONVECTION WILL
    GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A WELL-DEVELOPED QLCS WITH AN INCREASING RISK
    FOR DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A
    RISK OF EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES AND TORNADOES.

    THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
    TONIGHT...BEGINNING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION NEAR AND NW OF THE
    ARKLATEX...AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL
    CONVECTION FORMS WITHIN ONE OR MORE WARM SECTOR CONFLUENCE BANDS
    NEAR THE MS RIVER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG WITHIN A
    MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
    THOUGH MLCAPE MAY ONLY REACH 500-750 J/KG...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 500-700
    M2/S2 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 70-80 KT LLJ WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
    FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WITH FAST-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL
    SUPERCELLS...AS WELL AS CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT WILL
    BECOME A WELL-FORMED SQUALL LINE. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
    DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH
    VALLEY...WHERE 80+ KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL COINCIDE WITH
    AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.
  2. libgoon's Avatar
    Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)


    PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0226 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013

    ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL
    TORNADOES EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID
    SOUTH...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES
    OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID SOUTH...AND LOWER
    MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.

    THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

    MUCH OF ARKANSAS
    SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
    EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA
    WESTERN KENTUCKY
    NORTHERN LOUISIANA
    PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI
    PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
    EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
    WESTERN TENNESSEE
    EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS

    ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...PARTS OF THE
    SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS AND
    LOUISIANA COAST.

    THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
    THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
    CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
    ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
    HOURS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID
    SOUTH...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
    FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE AND INDIVIDUAL STORMS CROSS THIS
    AREA...CAPABLE OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES.
    SOME STORMS MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE.

    STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
    SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
    WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
    WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
    TODAY.

    ..COHEN.. 01/29/2013

    $$
  3. SQUAWK's Avatar
    FIRST!!!!!!!!

    (NON BLOG AUTHOR)
  4. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by SQUAWK
    FIRST!!!!!!!!

    (NON BLOG AUTHOR)
    Reported
  5. libgoon's Avatar
    I have been informed this is the PUPPYDAR

  6. libgoon's Avatar
    I dont think this one has been Christened yet but MSG take care

  7. libgoon's Avatar
    Mobile or as christened Disasterdar

  8. libgoon's Avatar
    Bit of a debate about the name of this one...........

  9. Scooster67's Avatar
    Great Stuff Lib......Thanks
  10. SuperYooper's Avatar
    Morderate risk. Kinda like throwing a ring into the fires of Mordor.

    Nice work on the South blog lib.
  11. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by SuperYooper
    Morderate risk. Kinda like throwing a ring into the fires of Mordor.

    Nice work on the South blog lib.
    seeing the southerns are all MIA . Thought someone better do it

    And thanks guys !!!!
  12. libgoon's Avatar
    MSG-- Keep your wits about you





  13. libgoon's Avatar
    Kai and the Panhandlers





  14. libgoon's Avatar
  15. InTheCone's Avatar
    Nice work here, Lib. Hopefully the 'Naders will stay away. Haven't seen MSG today, hope she's paying attention.
  16. atmoaggie's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by libgoon
    seeing the southerns are all MIA . Thought someone better do it

    And thanks guys !!!!
    Knowing that lib is Irish and maybe doesn't know all of our colloquialisms, not sure which MIA she means. Maybe this one? MIA - Misfits in Action (World Championship Wrestling)
  17. atmoaggie's Avatar
    Good blog, though. Tornado alley tonight, dixie alley tomorrow.

    Now:
  18. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by SuperYooper
    Morderate risk. Kinda like throwing a ring into the fires of Mordor.

    .
    Spelling not my strongest point ....and thankfully you are the only one,of the ones that picks on me that noticed the mistake ..... Must fix title now!!!!


    Quote Originally Posted by atmoaggie
    Knowing that lib is Irish and maybe doesn't know all of our colloquialisms, not sure which MIA she means. Maybe this one? MIA - Misfits in Action (World Championship Wrestling)
    MIA Missing in Action but it could stand for that too !! .....thanks for the praise



    Cone Thanks
  19. atmoaggie's Avatar
    The Arkansas nado text shows the first time I've seen the dual-pol radar being used for debris cloud spotting in an operational sense.

    SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO ... DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SUGGESTED DEBRIS IN THE AIR ... EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TREES DOWN. (TSA)

    (Prolly done before, but I didn't see it.)
  20. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by atmoaggie
    The Arkansas nado text shows the first time I've seen the dual-pol radar being used for debris cloud spotting in an operational sense.

    SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO ... DUAL-POL RADAR DATA SUGGESTED DEBRIS IN THE AIR ... EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TREES DOWN. (TSA)

    (Prolly done before, but I didn't see it.)
    Na it might be the first time you seen it ... the northerns got Dual-Pol first, can't understand why ? as ya would think Tornado alley would have been the priority ....
  21. MSGAL's Avatar
    Well....look at lil Lib go !!!!!!...........Thank you very much for this blog....Terrific job and everything is here You have become really really good at this....and I mean that sincerely......I have been and am still watching the Chasers....at this time they are merging somewhat toward the river area...a litttle NW of me....the worst weather is expected in the early morn hours.....and Timmer is on his way.......
  22. kaiden's Avatar
    Lib, I just got in. Thanks for the blog, good job, it has just about everything I need.

    Just had the first sprinkle of rain. We have had gusty southerly winds all afternoon.
  23. MSGAL's Avatar
    Oh..forgot the Chaser Link...ChaserTV Wall | ChaserTV......
  24. kaiden's Avatar
    MSGAL, stay alert tonight. It looks like it will be down here about 8 in the morning, which means I will have to drive the little lady to work.
  25. MSGAL's Avatar
    Oh and since Timmer isnt free anymore....I'll give him a couple of Libs.........next thing we know Cantore's gonna be charging....
  26. MSGAL's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by kaiden
    MSGAL, stay alert tonight. It looks like it will be down here about 8 in the morning, which means I will have to drive the little lady to work.
    Same to you, Kaiden ....its sure is was nice to see this expertly done blog....cheers to the lil Irish gal !!!!!!!!!!!!
  27. atmoaggie's Avatar
  28. MSGAL's Avatar
    Atmo....keep ya head above water down there.....wouldn't want the southern superbrain to get waterlogged....
  29. kaiden's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by MSGAL
    Same to you, Kaiden ....its sure is was nice to see this expertly done blog....cheers to the lil Irish gal !!!!!!!!!!!!
    I could not agree more.
  30. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by MSGAL
    Oh and since Timmer isnt free anymore....I'll give him a couple of Libs.........next thing we know Cantore's gonna be charging....
    Sure they always go where the storms aren't.....

    BTW Thank you all for the kind words .
Page 1 of 5 1 2 3 ... LastLast
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.1.5
Copyright © 2013 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
SEO by vBSEO 3.6.0
Image resizer by SevenSkins

Tabs System by vbSoporte - vBulletin en Espaņol
All times are GMT. The time now is 07:34 AM.