Weather Data
SuperYooper
Weather February 10th
by
on 02-10-2013 at 10:36 PM (1698 Views)
Storm today, above average temps for the week. Should be needing a ice pick to get into my truck tomorrow.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013
WENT AHEAD AND PUSHED THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD FROM NEAR LAKE MI...WITH A SPOTTER REPORT IN
CENTRAL/EASTERN GOGEBIC COUNTY OF LIGHT FREEZING. THIS LOOKS
REALISTIC ON THE 20Z ASX AND HYR OBS OF FREEZING RAIN. THE TRICKY
FORECAST CONTINUES. MIDOT SENSORS INDICATE THAT ROADWAY SFC TEMPS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN A FEW LOCATIONS FROM AU
TRAIN TO SENEY AND EAST. HOWEVER FROM HARVEY AND GWINN WESTWARD
ROADWAY SFC TEMPS REMAIN RIGHT AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. WHILE IT
WAS A BIT SURPRISING AS TO HOW WARM THE ROADS WERE ABLE TO GET
EAST...THEY LOOK TO BE ON TRACK ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...SO
THAT IF RAIN DOES FALL IT WILL LIKELY FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH
UNTREATED SURFACES. ALSO DIMINISHED PRECIP AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY DUE TO
THE SLOWER ONSET...AND UPSTREAM RADAR ESTIMATED ACCUMULATIONS OF
AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL WI.
THE SFC LOW ALONG THE NORTHEAST NE/W IA BORDER AT 18Z WILL SLIDE
NEAR MINNEAPOLIS BY 00Z MONDAY...WITH SSE WINDS OF 40-50KTS AT 850MB
/STRONGEST S CENTRAL AND W/...BEFORE PUSHING TO THE E HALF BY 03Z
MONDAY. A POCKET OF 500-700MB DRY AIR ACROSS SE TO NW WI AT 00Z
MONDAY SHOULD PUSH ALONG THE WI BORDER BY 03Z...SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH
UP ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE BY 06Z. WHILE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...THE MAIN IMPACT WILL
LIKELY BE A QUICK BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION /LIKELY
SNOW SHOWERS WEST/.
PUSHED THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW SLIGHTLY W AS IT CROSSES UPPER MI
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW
IMPLICATIONS...INCLUDING A BETTER WARM AIR INTRUSION INTO THE EAST
HALF OF UPPER MI /AS NOTED INITIALLY BY A MORE W PUSH TO FREEZING
RAIN/. EVEN WITH THIS WARMER AIR...FCST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW THE
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z MONDAY..AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI. THE FOCUS
WILL THEN TURN TO THE FAR WEST AND UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED NORTHERLY
WINDS PUSH ONSHORE TOWARD GOGEBIC AND WESTERN ONTONAGON COUNTIES.
WHILE 850MB TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PURE
LES...THE UPSLOPE DIRECTION WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT.
THE SFC LOW SHOULD THEN MOVE TO E LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO CANADA BY
18Z...WITH SFC-850MB WINDS BECOMING A BIT MORE NNW...AND MORE NW BY
00Z TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS MOVING UP THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2013
MON NGT...WITH LINGERING CYC NNW FLOW/DEEP MSTR AND H85 TEMPS AS LO
AS -12C TO -15C...EXPECT SOME LES/LK ENHANCED SN TO BE ONGOING IN
THE EVNG...ESPECIALLY NEAR LK SUP. BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER TO
MOVE THE LO PRES/DEEP MSTR TO THE E INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z
TUE...WITH SHRTWV RDGING/MORE ACYC LLVL FLOW ARRIVING W-E. GOING
FCST SHOWING DIMINISHING POPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF APPEARS TO
HAVE THIS TREND WELL IN HAND. DID END THE ADVY FOR ONTONAGON/
GOGEBIC COUNTIES A BIT EARLIER AT 06Z GIVEN FCST INVRN BASE SINKING
NEAR 3K FT AT IWD AFT 06Z WHILE EXTENDING THE HEADLINE FOR THE
KEWEENAW THRU 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING STRONGER WINDS/SOME BLSN
IN THE EVNG.
TUE...ALTHOUGH SOME LES MAY LINGER IN THE MRNG OVER THE ERN CWA WITH
HINT OF CYC NW FLOW ON THE WRN EDGE OF DEPARTING DEEPER MSTR...EWD
PUSH OF SFC RDG AXIS/DRIER MID LVL AIR/HIER H85 TEMPS CLOSER TO -8C
TO -10C/WSHFT TO SW IN THE AFTN SHOULD END ANY LINGERING PCPN BY
AFTN AND ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SOME SUNSHINE.
TUE NGT/WED...NEXT SHRTWV WITHIN RATHER FLAT TROFFING OVER CNTRL
CANADA WL PUSH THRU ONTARIO. WITH LIMITED MSTR INFLOW AND MARITIME
POLAR AIRMASS/H85 TEMPS IN THE -5C TO -8C RANGE TOO WARM FOR LES...
EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY ACCOMPANYING PCPN TO REMAIN N OF THE CWA.
TEMPS WL BE ABV NORMAL.
EXTENDED...OVERALL LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SHOWING A DEEPENING TROF INTO E-CNTRL NAMERICA IN THE MID- TO
LATE-WEEK TIME PERIOD DOWNSTREAM OF A BLDG RDG ALONG THE W COAST.
THUS EXPECT RELATIVELY MILD MID-WEEK TEMPS TO TREND AOB NORMAL BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT ON THE DETAILS OF
HOW THE MSLP FIELD WL EVOLVE...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A TREND
TOWARD A DEEPER LO DVLPG SOMEWHERE IN THE CNTRL GRT LKS LATE
THU/FRI...NOT UNREASONABLE CONSIDERING THE DEEPENING TROF OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARM LK WATERS. WITH A CYC NLY FLOW MOST LIKELY OVER THE
CWA IN THIS SCENARIO AND H85 TEMPS FCST TO ARND -15C...TENDED TO
BUMP UP POPS OVER MODEL CONSENSUS MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR LK SUP. IF
SOME OF THE DEEPER MODEL FCSTS VERIFY...THERE COULD BE SOME MDT-HVY
LK ENHANCED SN IN AREAS NEAR LK SUP. ALTHOUGH THE CYC FLOW IS FCST
TO WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE LO SLIDES SLOWLY TO THE E AND A HI
PRES RDG AXIS SHIFTS E FM THE PLAINS...LES CHCS WL LINGER NEAR LK
SUP THRU AT LEAST SAT.
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