P451

The above maps are all static images....so we can track how things flip around as we near.

I feel the NWS is missing the boat on this one --- unless they feel all the models are wrong.

While there is warmth around to the south - it's clear a signficant low will wrap up early with cold air - as is well depicted on ALL models - which usually is not the case if there was question.

For now I'd go with a significant 4-8" event for the corridor - before sounding any alarms for higher amounts we'd always like to see consistency.

First

That is not the blog author

Re Ported!

P I noticed the GFS has at least 3 storms heading in that direction from about friday on .




But it also has significant weather implications for the south

The GFS had woken up the pipeline going back about 10 days...and it has stuck to it.

The only notable change has been the speed. First we were at a back-to-back hit of Friday/Sunday. That moved up to Thursday and now we're even looking at late Wednesday for the onset of the event.

At the same time it has sped up the weekend event being very early Saturday but it seems to have slowed the exit of said event spanning it as much as two day on some ensemble runs.

I notice on the most recent run you have posted it is mirroring the run run from 12 hours ago that is hardly bold on the system at all.. but inbetween it is.

Interference from the Wed/Thurs event to be certain. If it can't get the post-wed/thur environment correct, everything after that fails to initialize properly. So I'd wait on what may come.

Seems to be the age old problem: Until you get the one significant system out of the way, we get ghost storms or poor initialization of the second storm. Can't do anything but wait.

Mount Holly, NJ's take on the system.... sounds like they wish to be bold, as I am on this system, but are "waiting". That's fine...but I bet we see them bump their wording to that of a more significant system come Tuesday.

---
THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE MID
WEEK SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE PASSING OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE ONSET,
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUPPORT RAIN IN ALL
BUT OUR FAR NORTH. DURING THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, COLD AIR
SHOULD BE DRAWN INTO OUR REGION ON A NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND
CAUSING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IF
PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ADDITIONAL
COOLING FROM ALOFT IS POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT, FORECASTING THE
CHANGE-OVER TIMES AND AMOUNTS REMAINS QUITE TRICKY AT THIS POINT.
NEVERTHELESS, BASED ON THE SYSTEM`S EXPECTED TRACK AND TIMING, IT
APPEARS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD RECEIVE OF SWATH OF A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR REGION, PERHAPS FROM THE
PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND POINTS
TO THE NORTH.

---



While their wording seems to suggest a light 1-3" system... I'd suspect that 3-6" would be a high confidence forecast. 4-8" potential is absolutely there on all models QPF and temp wise - it's more about placement west/east of the low center. NYC and north and west thereof could find themselves on the dry side.

Might see a jump of the moderate accumulation go from central NJ into eastern Long Island.

Good morning P.

Good to see that you are one of the survivors of the SNOWJOB cloud.

Model Analysis and Guidance 12z

Thanks Mark. I did not fear the storm as much as I feared the media hype. It nearly got me this time.


Afternoon all.

Both the GFS and NAM on both the 0Z and now 12Z runs have quite a nice storm for the upper mid-atlantic into southern coastal New England for late Wednesday into early Thursday.

While two runs aren't enough...it's worth noting this would actually be at least four consecutive runs for both models showing a similar hit.

Incidentally local NJ 12 News doesn't like the storm one bit, this morning saying "weak little disturbance too far south"...but then this afternoon echoed that but said "if we change our thinking we will let you know".

HPC...I think their swath of snow is too far north west away from the coast. While they are likely thinking warmth at the coast - there will be an early enough and definitive enough changeover for the coastlines.

I really think this looks good for 4"+ from NE MD through central NJ right into SE Mass. Perhaps SE NY, NW NJ, NW/SW CT find themselves on a slightly lower QPF side and struggle to hit 4" while the coasts reach 4-8".

I am surprised at the lack of commitment of NWS offices. Perhaps this evening we see them come forward some more. It would put us in the 48-60 hour timeframe. You'd think they will be comfortable with a more detailed look at this in the local products by then.

P it seems the GFS has backed off a major event untill late weekend.



The euro its even later

Good morning P. The media hype is the deadliest part of weather for sure. Maybe the NWS offices are backing off because of the unprecedented hystoria and are just laying low.

The world wonders.

BTW in case anyone is interested Sandy Report

only read 2 pages so far its a long long read

Originally Posted by NavarreMark

Good morning P. The media hype is the deadliest part of weather for sure. Maybe the NWS offices are backing off because of the unprecedented hystoria and are just laying low.

The world wonders.

Mark, you looking for Halsey?

Originally Posted by SQUAWK

Mark, you looking for Halsey?

Last I heard, he was out chasing Ozawa off Cape Engano or somethin.

Originally Posted by NavarreMark

Last I heard, he was out chasing Ozawa off Cape Engano or somethin.

It is nice to know someone who knows.

Originally Posted by libgoon

BTW in case anyone is interested Sandy Report

only read 2 pages so far its a long long read

Well they classify her as a Cat3 in eastern Cuba.. Wow 157 pages! that's gonna take some time to digest

Originally Posted by SQUAWK

It is nice to know someone who knows.

It seems as if we have come a bit more in line, and a significant event tonight (6"+ is considered significant) might only pan out for a few surprise pockets within the main swath of snow.

For what it's worth I have awoken to 24F...a good ten degrees below forecasting. Speaking of which, at 330AM they updated the local zone product, and went right to today's forecast calling for mid 40s. It's almost as if they rushed to remove "Tonight" from the forecast of which last I saw was calling for lows in the mid 30s.

Can't even get a six hour temperature forecast in tranquil conditions correct....what makes me believe their weakly leaning 1-3" for tonight's weather would pan out?

I don't know what to say about it all beyond it doesn't match the guidance. I have thought all along the warmer, drier, further inland, low snow, further NW snow swath GFS has been out to lunch from the start on tonight's system. I felt the NAM always had the snow swath correct if only just a little high on totals. I still do but now feel the totals are better.

NE Maryland to SE Mass - 2-5" looks good to me with a heavier 3-5" in central NJ to eastern LI.


I'm looking at both GFS and NAM and it's funny to me..the GFS snowfall outputs don't even seem to match it's own QPF/2m temp runs at all. You'd expect a similar snowfall map from the GFS that you see with the NAM. And to take it a step further I still see, when I see the runs, some 4-8" potentials in the heaviest snow swath. I guess we will find out won't we....(generally, why I was wrong to guess so high, lol).


Meanwhile, the weekend storm, NAM and GFS fail to phase the northern/southern streams in time for the middle atlantic....and at best show some chance of it for eastern most New England? Eh, gotta be careful here, a slight nudge on those models and you get runs that will show phasing along the middle-atlantic and we go from snow showers to major storm in a blink of an eye.

All about waiting for tonight's storm to move through before trusting model runs on the weekend warrior.


As to the pending storm, once again the mets are refusing to pull any triggers, because they are so tied to computer modeling. So if it's in the models hands, we all know that until tonight's storm heads out to sea and does it's thing (intensifies, tracks, how much, where) that the models cannot properly depict the environment in it's wake.

Since the next storm's intensity and tracking seems sensitive - and it cannot be properly modeled until we have a properly modeled pre-environment?

We're at the mercy of it all...if you're seeking a professional solution to the weekend's weather.


In instances such as this in the past the NWS would have simply put up "Chance of Snow" for Saturday/Sunday and they would have left it at that, and still would, until we drew near.

Originally Posted by FtMyersgal

Well they classify her as a Cat3 in eastern Cuba.. Wow 157 pages! that's gonna take some time to digest

Just from Satellite imagery alone I thought Sandy went high Cat 2 before landfall in Cuba.

After that she went Extratropical, her remaining core embedded within a broader sub-tropical/gale like hybrid system, that maintained and redeveloped off the mid-atlantic coastline. You could muse you now had a second system, a warm core hybrid mini-cyclone embedded within a gigantic 1,000 mile wide gale system.

I still just call it the SandyEaster because it was in no way a textbook hurricane after it entered the Bahamas. If that's what they want us to believe then they need to re-write the textbooks to make it so, and then I'll accept that as the new definition for Hurricane.

But that's another rant for another day... I'm still looking at the NWS' weakly leaning forecast for tonight and can't help but shake my head.

Originally Posted by NavarreMark

Good morning P. The media hype is the deadliest part of weather for sure. Maybe the NWS offices are backing off because of the unprecedented hystoria and are just laying low.

The world wonders.

Perhaps...or they are caught model watching...except the model they are watching is in conflict with itself producing snowfall maps that don't match it's own surface QPF/2m temp outputs within the same runs.

Ah, to be a professional met, where it appears you lose all sense of logic, and get paid handsomely for it. Teenage nerds whose top hobby is their local weather have a substantially better grasp on things.

Originally Posted by P451

Just from Satellite imagery alone I thought Sandy went high Cat 2 before landfall in Cuba.

After that she went Extratropical, her remaining core embedded within a broader sub-tropical/gale like hybrid system, that maintained and redeveloped off the mid-atlantic coastline. You could muse you now had a second system, a warm core hybrid mini-cyclone embedded within a gigantic 1,000 mile wide gale system.

I still just call it the SandyEaster because it was in no way a textbook hurricane after it entered the Bahamas. If that's what they want us to believe then they need to re-write the textbooks to make it so, and then I'll accept that as the new definition for Hurricane.

But that's another rant for another day... I'm still looking at the NWS' weakly leaning forecast for tonight and can't help but shake my head.

Just my opinion , Sandy on leaving the bahamas took on extropical characteristics.l she expanded her windfield and took on a warm front which the report actually said . but she interacted with the Gulf stream which lead to her returning some tropical characteristics although she never went completely one way or the other a hybrid hurricane would be a good way to describe her in my opinion, before complete transition before making landfall

I could see that interpretation as well, Lib.

I think the root of the problem is the guidelines... either they need to stick to them strictly, or, if they're going to bend them so much, re-write them.


As to this snow tonight I am sticking to my guns. Good hit for NE MD through SE MA.


NWS Mount Holly has conflicts within it's own walls right now.

They have Winter Weather Advisories for south-central NJ reaching into Philly, they have none for central NJ, and NYC has WWAs up for Long Island.

A curious gap which is right where the heaviest potential is in my opinion.


Local forecast wording continues to call for 1-3".

Their snowfall map released show a swath of 2-4" from Philly through central NJ.


The Zone Forecast, the snowfall map, and the posted advisories in no way line up with one another.

It's comical, really.... it's as if 3 individuals were given the 3 individual tasks, and each one chose a different model to forecast off of, and there is no interoffice communication taking place.

I'll never understand it, all I know is it is anything but professional. Looks like quackery to me.

The pure comedy of it is that yesterday mornings forecast (36 hours prior to onset of event), their boldest calling for moderate accumulations (3-6"), will prove to have the best chance to verify of all forecasts.

Go get 'em P! I do love reading your rips on the forecasting agencies, great fun! Can't wait to see how it turns out for real and who was right(if anyone).

Hi ITC. Well, the 12Z models flop the system....will the NWS rush to change our forecast to scattered showers? Or randomly upgrade to blizzard warnings? Inquiring minds need to know!

I recall that 12 hours prior to the New England blizzard the models dropped it to a light event only to go right back up the next run. Throw in the phantom DC-ACY blizzard that popped on one model run only to disappear the next (didn't stop the NWS from posting widespread foot+ snowfall amounts for about 3 hours before removing the maps lol)... and I think it's safe to say we have some modeling problems.

Poor initialization? Probably. Always seems to break continuity right around that 12hr to go mark tho----so something is recurring.


Meanwhile, my weekend forecast is now reduced to Partly Cloudy. In the past four days everything from Blizzard to Flurries, and now Partly Cloudy has been put in the forecast.

That's just perfect. This means 100% success rate for anyone who wishes to chime in defense of the NWS. Just match one of the forecasts to whatever the weekend weather happens to be and voila, they were right all along!

I'm not sure if ranting about it gets old or tiresome. They really have turned out to be quacks the past year...all falling in line with computer model upgrades/enhancements - and forecasting protocol adjustments. Whatever all the changes have been they'd be wise to back them all out and revert until they figure this out.

P!! Its good to let off steam at times , plus we are are used to it

P, your value here is that you are watching what they do on a continuous basis whereas most of the rest of us are only casual observers.

We don't see the day to day or forecast to forecast flip flops that you point out.

I think that is a real valuable service to the rest of us.

I know it is for me.

Thank you.

Howdy P.

Check out this impending climate change on the DOOMdar.

Oh my....the words I have for this...are just too numerous, vulgar, and rambling.....

NHC has been criticized for electing not to issue hurricane warnings in advance of Hurricane Sandy for the U.S. Sandy was expected to transition to a non-tropical system before landfall, and NHC opted days in advance to issue high wind warnings and not hurricane warnings for the U.S.

In the Sandy report, NHC argues that "Intentionally misrepresenting Sandy as a hurricane would have severely damaged the credibility of the NWS and undermined its ability to serve the public for years to come."

Worried about credibility? 3 days of calling for rapid intensification of Isaac only to have it be a 45mph gust front in the Florida straits wasn't enough to damage that? Among other things...

Worried about calling an extratropical system a hurricane? Since when? Ya did it for three days after it already made that transition anyway, why stop 12 hours short of land?

How about naming any cloud south of NOLA with a 20mph wind gust a Tropical Storm...and erecting Hurricane Warnings and starting the whole "Poor NOLA" sympathy march well in advance of any verifyable threats?

Goodness...we're worried about credibility!?

Oh my... NOAA... you instruct the SPC to forecast full categories actual severe weather threat levels all summer in the North East, and in your own words say you were doing it for public awareness.... yet you don't post hurricane warnings for a storm that had 90mph+ winds smashing hundreds of miles of coastline?

Oh good grief....maybe if these tools jumped off the Climate Change money train, spending all their time trying to figure out how to manipulate their data to prove a crackbrain theory...and got back to forecasting the weather we might not have these problems.

You're welcome, Squawk.

Mark, I see arrows, and yellow diamonds. Looks ferocious.

Think it'll wash the flooding rivers of sewage off the decks of that wonderful Carnival Cruise line?

As if those poor folks haven't suffered enough wading through sewage for four days and fighting over onion sandwiches...Carinval is putting half of them on busses and whisking them away to NOLA area hotels tomorrow evening when they dock in Alabama.

Some might regret not staying on the ship.


Personally, I think I'd rather been on the one that ran aground off of Italy.



Well, 43F and dropping, cloudy skies, and increasing chances of global warming followed by a transition to climate change this evening. How much, it doesn't matter, just write 'dem checks to Al Gore and all will come out in the wash.

I havent bought a word the man writes since I read that Joille aka the hole in donut would not effect any land

... and thats all I am saying on that