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SuperYooper

Weather February 18th

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by on 02-18-2013 at 02:09 PM (15357 Views)
Three things I'm certain of:

1. Winter is crap and will be showing why up here tomorrow.

2. Dewey doesn't believe in winter..........blogging.

3. I look badass in my beaverskin winter hat.





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 AM EST MON FEB 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST MON FEB 18 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NE MANITOBA THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHRTWVS. THE
MOST PROMINENT SHRTWVS OVER ERN ND AND WRN KS ALSO SUPPORTED SFC
LOWS INTO NRN MN AND CNTRL KS. SRLY FLOW HAD INCREASED OVER THE WRN
LAKES BTWN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE THROUGH THE ERN
LAKES WITH KMQT/KGRB VAD WIND PRFL SHOWING 45KT 2K-3K FT WINDS. AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH CNTRL INTO ERN UPPER MI WAS
SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF 285K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT. OTHERWISE...PCPN
AHEAD OF THE NRN SHRTWV REMAINED WELL TO THE WEST OVER NW MN.
UPSTREAM LOW LEVELS ALSO REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY WITH GENERALLY ONLY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER WI AND SRN MN. THE ONLY EXECPTION WAS NEAR LAKE
MI WHERE SE WINDS PROVIDED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR LOWER CLOUDS.

TODAY...AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE ERN CWA...EXPECT
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SINCE MODELS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FCST HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH...PER UPSTREAM OB
TRENDS...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN WILL BE LOW UNTIL FORCING WITH
THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV NEARS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS...THE SSE FLOW OFF OF LAKE MI MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY DZ/-DZ CNTRL AND EAST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. A BAND OF
800-600 MB FGEN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW INTO THE
WEST LATE

TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN HANDLING INTERACTION/PHASING
OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT/POSITION. THE ECMWF/GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE GEM REMAINED
SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING THE LOW COMPARED THE NAM.
USING A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE...INCREASING 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV
WITH THE NEG TILT TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING AND INTENSIFYING
AREA OF SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH SLR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 10/1 TO 15/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED...QPF VALUES APPROACHING
A 0.25 TO 0.35 INCH COULD BRING AT LEAST 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT.

IN ADDITION THE STRONG MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW DRAWING IN MUCH COLDER
AIR ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW INTO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BY 12Z/TUE COULD ALREADY APPROACH 6 INCHES AS WINDS PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST MON FEB 18 2013

...HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WRAPPED UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTS
UPPER LAKES...

CREDIT TO THE GEM-NH WHICH WAS SHOWING THIS TYPE OF WRAPPED UP SYSTEM
MANY DAYS AGO. SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
MORNING FCST TO DIG INTO NORTHERN MN AND WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH ALONG
WITH 250MB JET STREAKS LIFTING INTO ONTARIO AND LIFTING INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN...EXPECT SFC-H85 LOWS MOVING THROUGH TO DEEPEN. BASED ON
MODEL TRENDS...SEEMS LIKE WE ARE HEADING TOWARD MSLP BY 12Z TUESDAY
A BIT BLO 990MB...PERHAPS DOWN TO MID 980S MB. DUE TO COUPLED JET
STREAKS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH DEEPENING TROUGH...EXPECT
SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER MAINLY EAST CWA. H7 MIXING
RATIOS OVR 2.5G/KG AND QPF BULLSEYE OVR 0.25 INCH SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MORNING FROM MUNISING TO NEWBERRY AND MAYBE
AS FAR SOUTH AS MANISTIQUE. MEANWHILE...IN THE WEST AND NCNTRL
CWA...COLD AIR ADVECTION ON MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LEADS TO PERIOD OF
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. MOISTURE PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST
H7...THOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE IS LIMITED. SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SHOW TYPICAL OVERWHELMING INSTABILITY WITH HIGHER EQL AND LAKE
INDUCED CAPES AS INVERSION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 6KFT THROUGH EVENT.
EVEN SO...H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -15C TO -20C BY 18Z TUESDAY WITH THE
SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW IN LOWEST LEVELS WILL OFFSET THIS AND LEAD TO THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOWS. EXPECT 12HR SNOW AMOUNTS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 6 INCHES...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR...MAINLY IN
AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFTING GOING ON.

SNOW NOT ONLY ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH...NOT BY A LONG SHOT.
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME QUITE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY TIME WE REACH LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AND BLYR WINDS 40 KTS+ ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW/POOR VSBY. WITHOUT DEEPER
MOISTURE THIS IMPACT WOULD BE LIMITED TO WHERE LAKE EFFECT BANDS
OCCUR. IN THIS SETUP THOUGH...ENVISION MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND ENHANCED BLOWING SNOW. GIVEN EXPECTED
NNW BLYR WINDS...FAVORED AREAS WILL BE WESTERN CWA FROM IWD THROUGH
ROCKLAND AND TO TWIN LAKES AND ALSO OVR MOST OF EASTERN SNOWBELTS
FROM AU TRAIN TO NEWBERRY AND FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE SAULT. NORTH
FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF
KEWEENAW COUNTY AS WELL. WITH WIND AND SNOW...TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN WILL BE QUITE POOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.

TRENDS FROM MODELS TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM /EVEN 00Z ECMWF IS
COMING ALONG TO THIS NOW/ ALONG WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS LED
TOWARD ISSUING WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES BEGINNING THIS
EVENING
ALONG ALL OF LK SUPERIOR AND INTO EASTERN CWA. LONG DURATION OF
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST NOT
SEEING IMPROVEMENT TIL LATER WEDNESDAY.

ONE OTHER NOTE...SINCE 925MB WINDS OF 35-40 KTS EXTEND AS FAR INLAND
AS IRON COUNTY TO DELTA AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AND THERE
IS LARGER SCALE MOISTURE...HEAVIEST SNOW AND BLSN IMPACTS MAY AFFECT
LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND THAN NORMALLY WOULD OCCUR. DUE TO THIS
EXPECTATION PLACED HEADLINES UP FOR DELTA/SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT.

REST OF LONG TERM...MINIMAL CHANGES AS FOCUS WAS CLEARLY ON UPCOMING
SYSTEM. DESPITE INVERSIONS BLO 5KFT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EXPECT LGT LK EFFECT/FLURRIES WITH NORTH FLOW AND 925MB TEMPS BLO
-13C. NEXT SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK...IN A WEAKENING STATE...FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS RETAINED FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...SLIGHT
WARMING TREND REMAINS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS BACK
TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.


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Categories
Tropical Weather , Winter Weather , General Weather , Gardening , Outdoors

Comments

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  1. SQUAWK's Avatar
    FIRST!!!!!
  2. SuperYooper's Avatar
    ...WINTER STORM TO BRING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF UPPER
    MICHIGAN...

    .LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO
    TUESDAY RESULTING IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
    AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY...EXPECT COLDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE
    SUPERIOR TO BRING SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW TO NORTHERN UPPER
    MICHIGAN. STRONG WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE
    BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY. EXPECT THESE HARSH WINTER WEATHER
    CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY
    NIGHT AND OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY.
  3. libgoon's Avatar
    LOL Yoop !!

    REPORTED SQUAWK!
  4. SuperYooper's Avatar
    Im ported
  5. SuperYooper's Avatar
    Multiple Mesolows over Lake Superior on 2/17

    Light winds and cold temperatures inland allowed for the formation of meso-lows on Lake Superior. These features are small low pressure systems that form due to converging winds over the relatively warm open waters. Land breezes off of Ontario and Upper Michigan focused winds toward eastern Lake Superior. Because of the concave curvature of the northern and eastern shores of Lake Superior, the winds converged in the middle of the lake and developed "spin" in the low-levels of the atmosphere.

  6. SQUAWK's Avatar
    Ya'll a little slow on the draw, eh?
  7. libgoon's Avatar


    SPC AC 181257

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0657 AM CST MON FEB 18 2013

    VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
    TONIGHT FOR E TX...NW LA...AND SRN AR...

    ...E TX/NW LA/SRN AR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
    A MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
    MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD TO THE MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
    PRIMARY MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX TRANSLATING FROM OK/AR TO THE LOWER OH
    VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE IN NE KS WILL
    DEVELOP NEWD AND CONSOLIDATE WITH A SEPARATE LOW NOW IN E CENTRAL
    MN...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING CYCLONE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER
    GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE SWEEP EWD/SEWD
    ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS
    FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
    DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

    LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO TX THIS MORNING...WITH MID 50S
    BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND LOW 60S ALONG
    THE LOWER TX COAST...LARGELY AS FORECAST BY RECENT RUNS OF THE NAM.
    CONTINUED NWD/NEWD MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
    BENEATH THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME NOTED IN 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS
    OK/TX. THE CAP WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS A
    RESULT OF SOMEWHAT COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRATUS...THOUGH A
    FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THE W EDGE
    OF THE RICHER MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL INTO E TX. MODIFIED OBSERVED
    AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG INTO THE
    SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN WITH
    LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
    INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME ACROSS NE TX/SE
    OK...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO TONIGHT. THE
    COMBINATION OF WEAK BUOYANCY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR
    ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...WITH BOTH BOWING SEGMENTS AND SOME
    SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE
    MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS STORMS LIKELY ORGANIZE
    INTO A LINEAR CONFIGURATION...PRIOR TO THE CONVECTION MOVING E/NE OF
    THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR.

    ..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 02/18/201
  8. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by SQUAWK
    Ya'll a little slow on the draw, eh?
    Aye you just swoop in and beat us to the punch...
  9. FtMyersgal's Avatar
    That sucks Yoop stay safe, be safe
  10. SuperYooper's Avatar
    Why Michigan State law prohibits dog teams from stopping traffic is beyond me.

    Dog killed after UP 200 sled dog team and vehicle collide
    by Steve Asplund
    Posted: 02.17.2013 at 2:30 PMUpdated: 1 hr, 59 mins ago

    UP 200 sled dogs injured, musher unharmed

    ALGER COUNTY -- More information has been released in the incident involving a UP 200 sled dog team and a motor vehicle that occurred on early Sunday morning, resulting in the death of one dog.

    One dog was killed and two were seriously injured when a sled dog team collided with a vehicle on M-28 near the Wetmore checkpoint at 5:30 a.m., according to the Upper Peninsula Sled Dog Association. The musher, Frank Moe, and his team were attempting to cross the highway when the incident happened.

    Two dogs have been taken to a local veterinary clinic where they are in serious, but stable condition under 24-hour care, according to organizers.

    The UPSDA said that they place volunteers at road crossings to assist mushers. They added that Moe, with his 12 freshly-rested dogs, was unable to stop his team from the road crossing. Race volunteers noticed the vehicle coming and attempted to warn Moe, but according to race officials, he was unable to hear their calls. UPSDA officials added that the volunteers also attempted to help stop the team, but were unsuccessful. Michigan law prohibits race volunteers from stopping vehicle traffic.

    This is the first time an incident like this has happened in the race's 24-year history.

    According to organizers, the Ontario, Canada resident that was driving the motor vehicle stopped briefly at the scene, but then left. He later contacted the Michigan State Police, but officials said that this was an accident and no charges will be filed.
  11. PcolaDan's Avatar
    So which style did you get yoop?

  12. libgoon's Avatar
    LOL Dan !!!

    By the way at the moment for tomorrow....



    but only 5% probablity at the momemt
  13. SuperYooper's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by PcolaDan
    So which style did you get yoop?

    I would love to get a Continental hat but it doesn't cover the ears. I got this one but in beaverskin (I love asking people if they want to touch my beaver)

  14. SuperYooper's Avatar
    I was cleaning house and found this song....I now want to put a swing band together so I can cover these type of songs.

  15. libgoon's Avatar
    Very Cool , Now I have got to listen to some of appetite for destruction ...
  16. InTheCone's Avatar
    Love those meso lows!

    Here 'ya go yoop, summer model
  17. InTheCone's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by libgoon
    Very Cool , Now I have got to listen to some of appetite for destruction ...
    You can observe it in full color action just by watching what out government is doing!
  18. SQUAWK's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by InTheCone
    You can observe it in full color action just by watching what out government is doing!
    We don't have a g'mint now. We have a bunch of thugs, thieves, cheats, muggers, and robbers.
    And I mean on both sides of the aisle.
  19. InTheCone's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by SQUAWK
    We don't have a g'mint now. We have a bunch of thugs, thieves, cheats, muggers, and robbers.
    And I mean on both sides of the aisle.
    Yep, it's a real clusterf*** and the people are being scr****! At least we have good weather!
  20. libgoon's Avatar
    Tomorrow might be interesting for both Yoop and the Northern Gulf

  21. libgoon's Avatar
    Loop Embedded


  22. libgoon's Avatar
    Gulf of Mexico GOES Atmospheric Imagery

    Low Cloud Imagery

    Loop embedded

  23. libgoon's Avatar


  24. SQUAWK's Avatar
  25. libgoon's Avatar
    OOH Squawk got access to the new fancy Radar Imagery...
  26. libgoon's Avatar


    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0167
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0208 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

    AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX/SW LA

    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

    VALID 182008Z - 182115Z

    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

    SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
    ACROSS SE TX WHILE MOVING NEWD INTO SW LA. STORMS MAY BE STRONG
    ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WINDS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD
    BE TRANSIENT...LEADING TO A LOW PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE.
    ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BE THE
    THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

    DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED WITHIN THE WAA REGIME
    ACROSS SE TX. CLOUD COVER AND WARM PROFILES HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY
    THUS FAR BUT MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
    MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST SOME
    DESTABILIZATION. RECENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG
    AND MLCAPE AROUND 250 J/KG. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
    KEEP STORMS SHALLOW AND THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW.
    HOWEVER...DESPITE THIS MODEST INSTABILITY...THE STRONGLY SHEARED
    ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
    PRODUCE ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CELL
    MERGERS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY REFLECTS THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
    ROTATING STORMS NOTED IN MONTGOMERY AND SAN JACINTO COUNTIES IN SE
    TX. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR...A BRIEF/TRANSIENT
    TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW.

    ..MOSIER/HART.. 02/18/2013
  27. PcolaDan's Avatar
    May get a little damp down here.

  28. SQUAWK's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by libgoon
    OOH Squawk got access to the new fancy Radar Imagery...
    Yes I did. Now all I have to do is figure out how to use it.
  29. SQUAWK's Avatar
    TORNADO WARNING
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
    315 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...
    SOUTH CENTRAL HEMPSTEAD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
    CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEWISVILLE...
    CENTRAL MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

    * UNTIL 400 PM CST

    * AT 309 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF
    FOUKE...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WAKE VILLAGE...MOVING EAST AT 35
    MPH.
  30. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by SQUAWK
    Yes I did. Now all I have to do is figure out how to use it.
    Good for you

    Handy to have someone with it coming into Nadar season ...


    Aye Dan its going to be a wee tad wet for the next few days!!
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