Weather Data
SuperYooper
Weather February 18th
by
on 02-18-2013 at 02:09 PM (2824 Views)
Three things I'm certain of:
1. Winter is crap and will be showing why up here tomorrow.
2. Dewey doesn't believe in winter..........blogging.
3. I look badass in my beaverskin winter hat.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
746 AM EST MON FEB 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST MON FEB 18 2013
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM
NE MANITOBA THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHRTWVS. THE
MOST PROMINENT SHRTWVS OVER ERN ND AND WRN KS ALSO SUPPORTED SFC
LOWS INTO NRN MN AND CNTRL KS. SRLY FLOW HAD INCREASED OVER THE WRN
LAKES BTWN THE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE RIDGE THROUGH THE ERN
LAKES WITH KMQT/KGRB VAD WIND PRFL SHOWING 45KT 2K-3K FT WINDS. AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH CNTRL INTO ERN UPPER MI WAS
SUPPORTED BY A BAND OF 285K-290K ISENTROPIC LIFT. OTHERWISE...PCPN
AHEAD OF THE NRN SHRTWV REMAINED WELL TO THE WEST OVER NW MN.
UPSTREAM LOW LEVELS ALSO REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY WITH GENERALLY ONLY
MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER WI AND SRN MN. THE ONLY EXECPTION WAS NEAR LAKE
MI WHERE SE WINDS PROVIDED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR LOWER CLOUDS.
TODAY...AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES OUT OF THE ERN CWA...EXPECT
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SINCE MODELS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FCST HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH...PER UPSTREAM OB
TRENDS...CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN WILL BE LOW UNTIL FORCING WITH
THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV NEARS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS...THE SSE FLOW OFF OF LAKE MI MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME PATCHY DZ/-DZ CNTRL AND EAST LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES. A BAND OF
800-600 MB FGEN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCE FOR SNOW INTO THE
WEST LATE
TONIGHT...MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN HANDLING INTERACTION/PHASING
OF THE SEPARATE STREAMS AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT/POSITION. THE ECMWF/GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE GEM REMAINED
SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING THE LOW COMPARED THE NAM.
USING A GFS/ECMWF COMPROMISE...INCREASING 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV
WITH THE NEG TILT TROUGH WOULD SUPPORT EXPANDING AND INTENSIFYING
AREA OF SNOW OVER THE EAST HALF OF UPPER MI. ALTHOUGH SLR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 10/1 TO 15/1 RANGE ARE EXPECTED...QPF VALUES APPROACHING
A 0.25 TO 0.35 INCH COULD BRING AT LEAST 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT.
IN ADDITION THE STRONG MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW DRAWING IN MUCH COLDER
AIR ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW INTO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BY 12Z/TUE COULD ALREADY APPROACH 6 INCHES AS WINDS PRODUCE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EST MON FEB 18 2013
...HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS/BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WRAPPED UP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTS
UPPER LAKES...
CREDIT TO THE GEM-NH WHICH WAS SHOWING THIS TYPE OF WRAPPED UP SYSTEM
MANY DAYS AGO. SERIES OF H5 TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS
MORNING FCST TO DIG INTO NORTHERN MN AND WI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH ALONG
WITH 250MB JET STREAKS LIFTING INTO ONTARIO AND LIFTING INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN...EXPECT SFC-H85 LOWS MOVING THROUGH TO DEEPEN. BASED ON
MODEL TRENDS...SEEMS LIKE WE ARE HEADING TOWARD MSLP BY 12Z TUESDAY
A BIT BLO 990MB...PERHAPS DOWN TO MID 980S MB. DUE TO COUPLED JET
STREAKS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH DEEPENING TROUGH...EXPECT
SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER MAINLY EAST CWA. H7 MIXING
RATIOS OVR 2.5G/KG AND QPF BULLSEYE OVR 0.25 INCH SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MORNING FROM MUNISING TO NEWBERRY AND MAYBE
AS FAR SOUTH AS MANISTIQUE. MEANWHILE...IN THE WEST AND NCNTRL
CWA...COLD AIR ADVECTION ON MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW LEADS TO PERIOD OF
SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. MOISTURE PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST
H7...THOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE IS LIMITED. SOUNDINGS DO NOT
SHOW TYPICAL OVERWHELMING INSTABILITY WITH HIGHER EQL AND LAKE
INDUCED CAPES AS INVERSION IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 6KFT THROUGH EVENT.
EVEN SO...H85 TEMPS FALLING TO -15C TO -20C BY 18Z TUESDAY WITH THE
SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW IN LOWEST LEVELS WILL OFFSET THIS AND LEAD TO THE
MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOWS. EXPECT 12HR SNOW AMOUNTS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 6 INCHES...BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR...MAINLY IN
AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL UPSLOPE LIFTING GOING ON.
SNOW NOT ONLY ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THOUGH...NOT BY A LONG SHOT.
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME QUITE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS SYSTEM
BY TIME WE REACH LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE AND BLYR WINDS 40 KTS+ ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW/POOR VSBY. WITHOUT DEEPER
MOISTURE THIS IMPACT WOULD BE LIMITED TO WHERE LAKE EFFECT BANDS
OCCUR. IN THIS SETUP THOUGH...ENVISION MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND ENHANCED BLOWING SNOW. GIVEN EXPECTED
NNW BLYR WINDS...FAVORED AREAS WILL BE WESTERN CWA FROM IWD THROUGH
ROCKLAND AND TO TWIN LAKES AND ALSO OVR MOST OF EASTERN SNOWBELTS
FROM AU TRAIN TO NEWBERRY AND FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE SAULT. NORTH
FLOW MAY ALSO RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVR HIGHER TERRAIN OF
KEWEENAW COUNTY AS WELL. WITH WIND AND SNOW...TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER
MUCH OF UPR MICHIGAN WILL BE QUITE POOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT.
TRENDS FROM MODELS TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM /EVEN 00Z ECMWF IS
COMING ALONG TO THIS NOW/ ALONG WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS LED
TOWARD ISSUING WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES BEGINNING THIS
EVENING
ALONG ALL OF LK SUPERIOR AND INTO EASTERN CWA. LONG DURATION OF
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME SPOTS IN THE EAST NOT
SEEING IMPROVEMENT TIL LATER WEDNESDAY.
ONE OTHER NOTE...SINCE 925MB WINDS OF 35-40 KTS EXTEND AS FAR INLAND
AS IRON COUNTY TO DELTA AND SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AND THERE
IS LARGER SCALE MOISTURE...HEAVIEST SNOW AND BLSN IMPACTS MAY AFFECT
LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND THAN NORMALLY WOULD OCCUR. DUE TO THIS
EXPECTATION PLACED HEADLINES UP FOR DELTA/SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT.
REST OF LONG TERM...MINIMAL CHANGES AS FOCUS WAS CLEARLY ON UPCOMING
SYSTEM. DESPITE INVERSIONS BLO 5KFT LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EXPECT LGT LK EFFECT/FLURRIES WITH NORTH FLOW AND 925MB TEMPS BLO
-13C. NEXT SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK...IN A WEAKENING STATE...FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE POPS RETAINED FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...SLIGHT
WARMING TREND REMAINS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS BACK
TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
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