Eastern US Cold Snap? Feb 28 - March 5. (Snow March 6-7?)
byon 02-23-2013 at 09:41 PM (3228 Views)
230PM March 6th:
Models continue to refuse to give up on what appears could be a potential miss...
GFS Snowfall Map: GFS continues to be overly warm on the guidance which is the reason for the lower snowfall totals.
NAM Snowfall Map: NAM continues to be overly cool on the guidance which is the reason for the higher snofall totals....but also in part due to the secondary system being modeled more intensly for Thursday Night.
March 6th is upon us. The storm is here. Time to let it fall where it may.
Other than Mount Holly, NJ, seemingly being entirely out to lunch forecasting far lower totals than possible, these other snow forecasts look good (except TWC as well). I also think western zones in TauntonMA aren't matching up to the upton forecasts just to it's south. Go with Upton.
Late 3/4 Update - GFS/NAM showing major storm.
Well, last post on this system for today AND tomorrow. Will be far too busy to comment tomorrow. Probably time to let this thing play out, anyway.
18Z NAM and GFS seem pretty good for the upper middle atlantic and southern new england. Make of it what you will. Seems to have been a constant progression towards what you want to see for a significant event from DC to NYC to Boston. But who knows in the end. Never seen such model continuity thrown out the window before. Somethings gotta give...but it doesn't appear to be happening until the onset of the event late tomorrow.
As always, be wary of using the 6z and 18z models until you're real close to an event. However in today's case and even yesterday - there has been unwavering continuity throughout the 0Z-6Z-12Z-18Z releases both for the NAM and GFS with both contuniously trending larger, cooler, further north. So in cases like this I feel you can put trust in them.
*NOTE: New England is beyond the NAM's 84 hour limit reach...which is why there is a discrepancy for New England between the GFS and NAM.
NAM/GFS/ECMWF now all line up with an Iowa to NC/VA type low path. Solid WNW to ESE path.
I'd like to hold off calling it a non-event for NJ and northward just for the sake of wanting to see continuity but to be honest....it just seems like this is where the event is heading.
The GFS has come full circle and once again depicts a storm path ESE'erly straight out of the Ohio Valley as it did all the way back on Feb 23rd. This time quite a bit stronger.
Surface temperature reflection seems quite a bit warm for what the upper levels depict.
The ECMWF at 0Z further south and much colder.
Awful lot of bouncing around in speed and location here.
GFS 0Z and 12Z runs...for the same point in time (18Z Wed)
Yesterday's 12Z models were perfect for an exceptional winter event. 6-12" for certain possibly more.
So I ignored them.
Today's 0Z models are once again further south and more zonal in flow. Would be but a whimper if anything for NJ.
So I'm ignoring them.
So we're in the flip flopping stage. North-South-North-South is how the runs have gone.
Does this mean they'll focus in on a point inbetween in a couple of days?
I have no hope of that...until...
As expected we have the models flip flopping around now.
ECMWF further north again. GFS now does some very strange things. An odd attempting-to-negatively-tilt presentation here with possibly multiple surface features. Also drew in the path of the low on the model run which is strange as can be.
What this tells me is two things. 1) don't trust the models/take them literally. 2) they are showing an evolving situation and they are showing a tendency to want to render the system further north.GFS went MUCH warmer and downright kooky with it's path. Timing wise they have come back more in line. I simply chose the earlier GFS to show the very strange surface presentation that it has going on... hints at a volitile setup perhaps?
For what it is worth...here they are. I think we're kind of screwed here with model runs until late Monday at the earliest.
Looking ahead to Wednesday some TV forecasters are mentioning that it could be interesting..but for now are waiting, and only having "showers" in the forecast.
NWS dropped us from 50F and Rain to 38 and Showers for Wednesday with the mention of SNOW in the morning. SO we're getting closer there.
GFS still seems out to lunch to me - and given zone forecasts it appears nobody is paying attention to it.
Euro seems in line with what you might expect but it seems forecasts also ignore it and want the system even further north and warmer.
Seems odd overall but that's what we get at this point in time.
European Model likes the system.
GFS not so much anymore.
Would caution that given the reluctance of the present storm system, which is blown out and energy stretched, to remove itself from the picture - we may see many changes in model runs. Might not be able to trust any for another day or two until this situation evolves and we get the March 3/4 system to clear out.
Shot of snow out of this one for the Middle Atlantic? March 6 or 7?
Models hinting at an Eastern US Cold Snap from Feb 28th through March 5th.
This blog entry isn't in support of these model runs - YET - it is instead to open up an entry to check the continuity of those runs as this potential event evolves.
GFS Valid 2/28 (posted 2/23) 850MB Temps
ECMWF Valid 2/28 (posted 2/23) 850MB Temps
GFS Valid 1/5 (posted 2/23) 850MB Temps
ECMWF Valid 1/5 (posted 2/23) 850MB Temps
CPC Valid March 1-5 (posted 2/23) Temperature Outlook