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LaughingCat

Your 2 cents needed... a self-serving blog post!

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by on 02-25-2013 at 02:57 PM (343 Views)
Hello all. It has been a long time since my last confession. Here's 10 Hail(stone) Marys...

I am running a 63 mile race at the Outer Banks of NC next weekend, March 9-10 (12 days from now). I have looked at the 8-14 day from HPC which looks cold and dry.

If you have access to any other data or models that give any hint at possible conditions, I would most certainly welcome it. Even if it's a WAG or a SWAG...

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  1. libgoon's Avatar
    LOL !!! Good to see Ya LaughingCat ..

    First !!!

    will get ya some models in a minute
  2. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Lib. You are reported.
  3. NavarreMark's Avatar
    If SWAGs are welcome I'll give you mine.

    There will be a 21.39% chance of rain with cool temps.

    My SWAGs for 12 days out are legendary by the way.
  4. libgoon's Avatar
    TwisterData.com | GFS 2 M ABOVE GROUND TMPF Forecast

    The GFS is the one that goes that far out only
  5. SQUAWK's Avatar
    YOU ARE GOING TO RUN 63 MILES??????
  6. LaughingCat's Avatar
    @Mark... thanks for reporting libgoon and thanks for your highly specific forecast. I'll take a 78.61% chance of fair weather, and cool temps will work well. I predict your forecast has a 57.31% chance of verifying.

    @lib... I saw the animation from days 1 and 2, but it wouldn't let me click on the days 9-17 buttons (they were red). I probably didn't know what to click... I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

    @sqwawk... I am going to "propel myself forward under my own power" for 63 miles. Probably not what most people would consider running. Somehow, I read about this 100K race called the Graveyard 100 and thought, "That sounds like a good idea." Like I said, I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
  7. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by LaughingCat
    @Mark... thanks for reporting libgoon and thanks for your highly specific forecast. I'll take a 78.61% chance of fair weather, and cool temps will work well. I predict your forecast has a 57.31% chance of verifying.

    @lib... I saw the animation from days 1 and 2, but it wouldn't let me click on the days 9-17 buttons (they were red). I probably didn't know what to click... I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer.

    @sqwawk... I am going to "propel myself forward under my own power" for 63 miles. Probably not what most people would consider running. Somehow, I read about this 100K race called the Graveyard 100 and thought, "That sounds like a good idea." Like I said, I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
    I should have said The 12z is only running it wont be completed for about an hour

    Here is the 6z if you see the scroll menu you can get all 4 GFS runs

    TwisterData.com | GFS 2 M ABOVE GROUND TMPF Forecast
  8. MSGAL's Avatar
    .......WOW..LCat....have to admire that......!! Best of luck to ya........and dont I feel old....but..lol...I am....
  9. LaughingCat's Avatar
    Thanks Lib... I definitely would love the 300hr forecast to verify! Temps in the 50's, even overnight. Winds out of the NE which would be perfect since I am running from north to south (Nags Head to south end of Hatteras Island).

    Thanks MSGal. I am feeling old myself
  10. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by LaughingCat
    Thanks Lib... I definitely would love the 300hr forecast to verify! Temps in the 50's, even overnight. Winds out of the NE which would be perfect since I am running from north to south (Nags Head to south end of Hatteras Island).

    Thanks MSGal. I am feeling old myself
    Your welcome ... when its 10 days out take a look at the Euro and the others when its 7 days out .

    Have a great time on your run !!
  11. FtMyersgal's Avatar
    I'm with Squawk cat!! Run 63 Miles? I wouldn't walk 63 miles
  12. SQUAWK's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by FtMyersgal
    I'm with Squawk cat!! Run 63 Miles? I wouldn't walk 63 miles
    I wouldn't ride a bicycle 63 miles!!!!

  13. Scooster67's Avatar
    Good Luck Cat. Just keep moving and you'll stay warm.
  14. LaughingCat's Avatar
    @FtMyersgal... I definitely won't run the entire time. I'll run the first 15 and stumble the last 48.

    @Sqwawk... If I found a bicycle on mile 39, I would be tempted.

    @Scooster... Thanks. It's funny that the event is getting close enough to look at those highly interesting (most worthless) models that do far out in time. In fact, I'm playing a game called "what's the forecast today". Yesterday, it looked like 40's for daytime AND nighttime which would be awesome. Haven't checked today yet.
  15. LaughingCat's Avatar
    Crap on a stick.. just realized I've been reading the wind direction incorrectly. A strong SW breeze instead of NE which would be a headwind... 35 knots, at that
  16. libgoon's Avatar
    LCAT .... How many hrs out is your run I am not seeing that wind @360-372 hrs ....

    BUT GFS 384 hrs carries a major health warning ... as in believe it when you see it verify, it will change in near every run upto about 120hr out and hopefully if will be correct at that stage.
  17. PcolaDan's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by LaughingCat
    Crap on a stick.. just realized I've been reading the wind direction incorrectly. A strong SW breeze instead of NE which would be a headwind... 35 knots, at that
    Run backwards.
  18. LaughingCat's Avatar
    @lib, LOL, I turned drama queen for a second... Meant to say 25kt (think it was on the 18Z Feb 25 run at 300 hr), but now looking much more relaxed w/ broad high pressure off the coast. I figured that models that far out are more suited for parlor games than anything else. I'm just stressing over the possibilities, but of course I realize that this is illogical.

    As a wise man once said, "Everyone talks about the weather but no one ever does anything about it."

    @ Pcola, please send me a schematic of this process or perhaps an instructional video of this method.
  19. FtMyersgal's Avatar
    Where on the Outer Banks is your run? Anywhere near Kill Devil Hills?
  20. LaughingCat's Avatar
    My race starts just south of KDH in Nags Head and runs south to the end of Hatteras. I love the KDH area... Bob's Grill is my favorite place to eat... I'll be chowing down there on race morning (my run starts at 3 pm).

    BTW, there is also a 100 MILE race that starts at 5 am up in Corolla and ends at the same place as our 100K. I'm not THAT crazy.
  21. FtMyersgal's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by LaughingCat
    My race starts just south of KDH in Nags Head and runs south to the end of Hatteras. I love the KDH area... Bob's Grill is my favorite place to eat... I'll be chowing down there on race morning (my run starts at 3 pm).

    BTW, there is also a 100 MILE race that starts at 5 am up in Corolla and ends at the same place as our 100K. I'm not THAT crazy.
    I love KDH area. Just awesome.
    Now 100 Miles is suicide in my opinion. That's just not right!
  22. LaughingCat's Avatar
    Agreed! I'm like Sweet Brown... "ain't nobody got time for that".
  23. libgoon's Avatar
    She cracks me up too funny but very Cool !!
  24. FtMyersgal's Avatar
  25. libgoon's Avatar
    I love that video its too funny but I think she is cool !!
  26. FtMyersgal's Avatar
    I think she is cool too!
  27. LaughingCat's Avatar
    You know that she is cashing in! She has an awesome commercial for a dentist.
  28. FtMyersgal's Avatar
    Can't blame her for that! I say "You go girl"
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