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Maria skirting Newfoundland; Atlantic very quiet for the moment

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by on 09-16-2011 at 04:43 PM (995 Views)
Please note that these tidbits do NOT reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center, and should not be taken as such. While tropical cyclones exist in the Atlantic, the official NHC forecasts will be posted in the lower part of this blog. Please refer to those when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office.

If you can, playing the video in HD makes it much easier to see things. The video will play in low quality by default. If HD quality isn't available, then it will be in a few minutes. Let me know if you have problems with the video, and please feel free to ask me any questions regarding what I talk about in these tidbits, or about the weather in general. You can post in either of my blogs or on Youtube. I will do my best to answer. Thanks for stopping by!

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Hurricane Maria is about to brush Newfoundland with a few hours of very nasty weather. I have not seen any wind reports within the last 2 hours of anything over 40kts there, so hopefully conditions will not become too dangerous, but hurricane-force gusts are likely right along the coast where the center passes. Maria is racing northeastward at 52mph and will be out of there quickly, probably not too big of a deal for residents there, but still a fairly dangerous storm.

The rest of the Atlantic is dead quiet by mid-September standards. The culprit for this is likely a downward pulse in the MJO which is bringing sinking air over much of the Atlantic right now, which suppresses thunderstorm activity. This is forecasted to reverse to an upward motion pulse within the next two weeks by the GFS and UKMET. The ECMWF stubbornly keeps the MJO in octants that favor downward motion over the Atlantic for the next 15 days, but with the Atlantic still being the warmest ocean basin in the tropics right now, upward motion will likely return to our area of the world for this latter part of the hurricane season.

As the MJO returns, troughiness is expected to set up over New England, and this kind of a pattern has been known to spark development in the western Caribbean in the late season. While none of the models currently show significant development, they continue to show a very wet Caribbean from late next week through the following week, and broad low pressures overall in the area. I have been speaking of the potential for development in this area too long to drop it now until we get through this period where I think it is likely to be attempted. This area should be watched through at least the end of the month, and possibly even into October, because as the Cape Verde season shuts down, the Caribbean will become our biggest focus until the season comes to an end. We just now passed the peak of the season, and the current lull is good but misleading. We still have a long way to go before it's all said and done.

We shall see what happens!

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  1. ncstorm's Avatar
    great update Levi!
  2. FtMyersgal's Avatar
    Thanks for the update Levi.
  3. FLdewey's Avatar
    Thank you Levi.
  4. Stats56's Avatar
    As always, thanks for your efforts Levi, glad you are posting here as well
  5. FLdewey's Avatar
    Toasty Atlantic... yum.
  6. kaiden's Avatar
    Hey Levi, Thank you.
  7. JupiterFL's Avatar

    Awesome. Great update. Its never over till its over.
  8. lavinia's Avatar
    Thanks for the great update Levi. Nice to see you here.
  9. Jax82's Avatar
    Thx Levi!
  10. MIL-n-VA's Avatar
    Great vid as always.
  11. MSGAL's Avatar
    Thanks Levi........I've never missed a Tropical Tidbit.....just a way of life. One day we are all gonna be able to say.......we knew Levi when......There are great things coming your way, for sure
  12. SuperYooper's Avatar
    Great job Levi.
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