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Possible Severe Weather in coming week

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by on 02-15-2014 at 11:28 AM (2661 Views)
Been watching the Numerical Models over the past few days in relation to severe weather , there appears to be a viable possibility Thursday / Friday , there is model concensus on a low in the central plains on Wed /Thursday Moving towards the Great lakes ecmwf-oper 2014021500 Forecast slp Java Animation The Ensemble Mean of the Euro also would concur on this ecmwf-ensmean 2014021500 Forecast slp Java Animation The GFS Timing is slower gfs 2014021506 Forecast slp Java Animation
I think this is a viable potential of severe weather , its too early for the NAM and SREF to show but the SPC have in their day 4-8 outlook http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/


This is practically the only player anywhere .. No Storm for me for the next few Days nothing in the tropics either . There is a storms off the East Coast ,Just a rain Maker 24 hr GFS Acc Precipitation





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Updated 02-15-2014 at 11:46 AM by libgoon

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  1. DestinJeff's Avatar
    First beetches!
  2. DestinJeff's Avatar
    And re ported
  3. libgoon's Avatar
    Nope You are Reported Jeff!!!!!
  4. PcolaDan's Avatar
  5. Aislinn's Avatar
    Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 34 degrees with a high expected of 63. I did parent pick up in 70 degrees yesterday compared to 33 a week ago. It's supposed to be in the low seventies tomorrow and Monday.

    Lib, just promise me none of that bad weather is coming to Louisiana. Five days off for winter weather is a record for where I am, it's never happened before. Previous record was an ice storm about 18 years ago and was four days with no electric and three days of no school.

    Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
  6. StAugustineFL's Avatar
    Good morning.

    Aislinn - I'll have some fresh fruit - perhaps kiwi, strawberries, and pineapple with a glass of pineapple juice.

    The NE is in for a good hit from the east coast storm. Blizzard warnings have been issued.

    URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    600 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

    ...ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THIS
    AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

    MAZ007-019-022-151900-
    /O.CON.KBOX.BZ.W.0003.140215T2100Z-140216T1000Z/
    EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER...PLYMOUTH...CHATHAM...
    FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN
    600 AM EST SAT FEB 15 2014

    ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
    5 AM EST SUNDAY...

    * LOCATIONS...COASTAL ESSEX COUNTY AND EAST COASTAL PLYMOUTH
    COUNTY AND CAPE COD.

    * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

    * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

    * TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

    * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

    * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING
    CONDITIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

    * WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

    * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
    GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR
    BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH
    WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY
    BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE
    ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS.
  7. StAugustineFL's Avatar
    Couple of snow maps.....



  8. libgoon's Avatar
    I know it was St Valentines day , but that area had severe warnings , Personally I feel for the resuce personnel ,in that , they had to be out in it ! rescuing selfish airheads
  9. FtMyersgal's Avatar
    Thanks for the shinny new blog lib! Glad you will get a break in your weather. We are forecast for a high of 72 and a low of 54. BTW, my rainfall total from the last front Wednesday/Thursday was 1.15" more than was forcast
  10. libgoon's Avatar
    Ais , I will have the oatmeal !

    I cant make that Promise Ais , not meaning to scare or anything CAPE is forecast to be moderately unstable

    Euro



    GFS

  11. SuperYooper's Avatar
    OH NOES! 6-10 INCHES!

    Please.....

    Why can't we get disaster relief for how much snow we get? I'd take some money just to replenish the sand supplies.

    Warmup this week...just in time since we are tying the record today for consecutive days below freezing. Tomorrow's record will be 73 days.

    Whadda record.

  12. StAugustineFL's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by SuperYooper
    OH NOES! 6-10 INCHES!
    That's what she s................. never mind.

    Still planning on making the Disney trip over the summer Yoop?
  13. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by FtMyersgal
    Thanks for the shinny new blog lib! Glad you will get a break in your weather. We are forecast for a high of 72 and a low of 54. BTW, my rainfall total from the last front Wednesday/Thursday was 1.15" more than was forcast
    Your Welcome Gal , Not so much this week is expected

  14. SuperYooper's Avatar
    Just put in for the time off Aug. Was planning on putting a blog together. NEED to have a Bunker get together. I'll try for a blog tomorrow if I have time after ski races.
  15. Aislinn's Avatar
    Passes breakfast to everyone.

    I think our weather is going to be rain and storms as temps are supposed to stay in the high sixties to low seventies. I should have looked at the forecast. *G*
  16. libgoon's Avatar
    6-10 inches ( Aug)

    Aye Yoop looks like you are in for some more snow , warm up yes .... thaw hardly
  17. StAugustineFL's Avatar
    Time to go mow the lawn. I was hoping to run the edger along the curbing but the front of my house faces due east of east and with west winds gusting to 35mph today, I'll have to take a pass otherwise this would be a good possibility.

  18. Landfall2004's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by SuperYooper
    Just put in for the time off Aug. Was planning on putting a blog together. NEED to have a Bunker get together. I'll try for a blog tomorrow if I have time after ski races.
    I was trying to arrange a Bunker Get together in Vegas at Margaritaville on May 14, 15 or 16, but so far, no takers.

    Sorry Yoop, you are going to MELT if you come to Disney in August!!!!
  19. PcolaDan's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by libgoon
    I know it was St Valentines day , but that area had severe warnings , Personally I feel for the resuce personnel ,in that , they had to be out in it ! rescuing selfish airheads
    I was thinking the same thing. Their ignorance put others in danger.
  20. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by PcolaDan
    I was thinking the same thing. Their ignorance put others in danger.
    Yeah , I know its not a common occurrence, severe weather over here but its a severe situation at the moment ...
  21. InTheCone's Avatar
    Howdy Bunkerites!

    Just recovering from watching the US - Russia Hockey game this morning. Took 8 rounds in the shootout for the US to pull it out. Great game, I love the Olympics hockey tournament, always some classic games.

    Thanks for the new blog, Lib! Hope that there isn't any severe weather this week. It was getting some mention on the Twittersphere. One way or the other, it won't be long until we get into 'Nader season.
  22. McBart ender's Avatar
    B.U.M.P. from previous blog. (for LF consideration)
    Quote Originally Posted by Landfall2004
    Hmmm...worthy of consideration. Seems to be a valid measurement of frozen precipitation.
    "Crotch level" = DOOM: Also a good measure of flood water. ...especially if measured while standing on the roof of Yoops camper.

    EDIT: See CSG for definition of Camper Snow Gauge.
  23. McBart ender's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Aislinn
    Passes breakfast to everyone.

    I think our weather is going to be rain and storms as temps are supposed to stay in the high sixties to low seventies. I should have looked at the forecast. *G*
    Ais, Thanks for remembering the Creamed Gravy! I'll take it with both sausage and beef, over the biscuits. ...and a bucket of black coffee please.

    Good morning all! Glorious weather here in NOLA West. Severe Clear, in the 60's.

    Is everyone recovering from VD?
  24. MSGAL's Avatar
    If ya like graphs and images....most of us here do....LOL....take a look at this seismogram/helicorder that.captured the 4.1 quake in the Ga/SC area last night...........makes quite a statement !....if this doesnt post correctly, Ill try again


    !
  25. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by MSGAL
    If ya like graphs and images....most of us here do....LOL....take a look at this seismogram/helicorder that.captured the 4.1 quake in the Ga/SC area last night...........makes quite a statement !....if this doesnt post correctly, Ill try again


    !
    WOW ! that needle sure was bouncing
  26. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by InTheCone
    Howdy Bunkerites!

    Just recovering from watching the US - Russia Hockey game this morning. Took 8 rounds in the shootout for the US to pull it out. Great game, I love the Olympics hockey tournament, always some classic games.

    Thanks for the new blog, Lib! Hope that there isn't any severe weather this week. It was getting some mention on the Twittersphere. One way or the other, it won't be long until we get into 'Nader season.
    Didn't see the Hockey game but Sounds like a great finish

    Yeah there have been murmers a few days , the timeline keeps getting backed but there seems to be a viable chance , I guess I should have waited to see what Torcon and if the SPC jumped but sure it will be something to watch out for !
  27. MSGAL's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by libgoon
    WOW ! that needle sure was bouncing
    Lawdy,didnt it though.....I watch the seismic activity, as Ms is near the New Madrid fault....
    BTW its a beautiful sunny day here...49 and when it warms a little more....Ill go out...lol
  28. McBart ender's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by MSGAL
    If ya like graphs and images....most of us here do....LOL....take a look at this seismogram/helicorder that.captured the 4.1 quake in the Ga/SC area last night...........makes quite a statement !....if this doesnt post correctly, Ill try again


    !
    Thanks for posting that. Just looking at it it looks a bit strange. It seems like the recorder 'clipped' the amplitude during the early parts of the quake. Lemme check on that and see what I can find.
  29. MSGAL's Avatar
    from another recorder

  30. McBart ender's Avatar
    It clipped. It just couldn't handle the peaks. You can see the waveform on the second chart you posted. It kind of matches this one.

    IRIS: M4.1 Georgia, Usa
    Try this link:

    I'll also try to post a graphic, but I don't know if it will work...

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