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TropicalAnalystwx14

(SB) Hurricane Maria becomes post-tropical; Hurricane season definitely not finished

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by on 09-16-2011 at 11:43 PM (966 Views)
Hurricane Maria, the thirteenth named storm and third hurricane of the already above-average 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, is no longer active in the Atlantic basin this afternoon. After fighting with dry air up to the Northeastern Caribbean Sea, wind shear finally abated to the north of Puerto Rico. Maria began to strengthen, and became a Category 1 hurricane yesterday afternoon. Continuing to strengthen, Maria reached her peak late last night into early this morning, with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Moving Northeastward at a fast pace, Maria made landfall in Newfoundland this afternoon, as a minimal hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. After losing its tropical characteristics, the National Hurricane Center wrote their last advisory on the system at 5PM AST, while located 145 mi. to the North-Northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. When the storm formed back on September 6, it marked one of the earliest formations of the "M" name, which I cannot name right off the top of my head. Throughout the Caribbean Islands, Bermuda, and Newfoundland, tropical-storm force winds were recorded, and it is likely Maria will be quite costly, after the rains it dumped on Puerto Rico, which as already slammed by Hurricane Irene earlier in the season.

With Maria gone, the Atlantic basin is in a short lull...but how long will this last? Well, in my opinion, it will not last too much longer. All of our reliable computer models forecast development of Ophelia within the next week or less. This includes the CMC, NOGAPS, GFS, and the highly-valued ECMWF. This appears to come from a strong tropical wave this is currently located to the south/southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is currently being given a low chance, 10%, of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. However, given the satellite structure and favorable upper air environment, I think these chances need to be slightly higher, near 20%. The National Hurricane Center has not tagged this system as an invest, but I believe they will in due time. The wave is moving off towards the west, but a very slow pace. Given the low wind shear, absence of dry air/SAL, and warm Sea Surface Temperatures, I see no reason why this system shouldn't develop, except for perhaps the downward motion of the MJO across the basin.

TropicalAnalystwx14

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Comments

  1. TropicalAnalystwx14's Avatar
    I did a short update, not much to talk about at this present time.

    - TAWX14

    P.S. SB stands for "Short Blog"
  2. FLdewey's Avatar
    LOL - I was coming here to ask about the SB

    Thanks for the blog... nice update.
  3. P451's Avatar
    It is interesting to note that 2005 had a brief September lull. In fact 2011 is generally mirroring 2005.. but maybe just a week behind.

    Uncanny looking at their progression on this chart.


  4. FLdewey's Avatar
    That's the new "chart"
  5. TropicalAnalystwx14's Avatar
    LOL Dewey..
  6. JupiterFL's Avatar
    Thanks Tropical. Not much going on but we all know it won't stay like that for long.
  7. MIL-n-VA's Avatar
    When it does go I think it might get going quick.
  8. P451's Avatar
    I'm thinking the same thing. It'll be another burst like 2005 and 2010.
  9. kaiden's Avatar
    Thanks for the good info, keep it up.
  10. PrivateIdaho's Avatar
    But where is Grandpato4?....is he O.K.?
  11. WeatherNerdPR's Avatar
    SB...S Blog?
    Oh, SHORT bolg, LOL
    Thanks.
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