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InTheCone

June & July: Early Mayhem or Meh?

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by on 06-01-2017 at 08:55 AM (13128 Views)
The Season has arrived and it’s time to start looking for mischief in the Caribbean and GOM for early season rain makers and hopefully not much more.





Be Prepared to BS/SS and practice those option #2 protocols and study up on the map of DOOM....

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Updated 06-01-2017 at 09:04 AM by InTheCone

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  1. InTheCone's Avatar
    New Tidbit for your viewing pleasure...



    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hBoqAXlNYM4
  2. hurricat's Avatar
  3. hurricat's Avatar
    Dang it! Cone beat me by a minute!
  4. InTheCone's Avatar
    Good Morning Bunkerites!

    Oss usually does that to me.

    Still a big spread on the end game for this whole mess, no real change overnight. Euro is furthest west and south....



    ...and all the others spread further east towards NOLA at the furthest east.....



    Just looks like Juan soggy Gulf Coast Super Soaker.
  5. NavarreMark's Avatar
    The 06Z NAM, the Cadillac of all Not A Tropical Model Models, still shows that Matagorda Bay is DOOM. This can be trusted.

  6. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by DestinJeff
    My Colorado prays for you Gulfonians.

    This week could be interesting.

    I spent yesterday taping the upside down Xs on my windows and filling my used milk jugs. Plenty of option #2 supplies and cigars are at hand.

    I've done all I can. It is in the hands of the higher power now. That and ECF, and ECF has been weak since your desertion and Leftenant Nodar's preoccupation with fire water and soiled doves.
  7. InTheCone's Avatar
    Good Morning Dr. Mark!

    The NAM is probably right, the areas to the east of there are in for quite the drencheroo.

    Ais' BreakFastCast - a pre-soak.....

    Today: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs around 90. West winds up to 5 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

    Tonight: Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
  8. NavarreMark's Avatar
    DAMN the TABD, TABM & CLP5.

    I've never cared much for them.

  9. InTheCone's Avatar
    Incoming moistcha' shows pretty much the same for the Goofy and the Euro......



  10. NavarreMark's Avatar
    The ensembles are in and they lay waste to NOLA.

    Bless them.

  11. InTheCone's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by NavarreMark
    DAMN the TABD, TABM & CLP5.

    I've never cared much for them.

    ]
    TABS appear to have taken over for the BAMS.
  12. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Of course those of us in the know will rely on the models which are not skillful.

  13. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by InTheCone
    TABS appear to have taken over for the BAMS.

    The BAMS has been a thorn in our side for years.

    Somebody should do something.
  14. NavarreMark's Avatar
    * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
    * INVEST AL932017 06/19/17 06 UTC *

    TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
    V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 43 46 52 52 50 46 44 41 33 28
    V (KT) LAND 35 32 38 41 44 50 50 49 44 36 30 28 27
    V (KT) LGEM 35 32 36 37 38 39 38 35 33 28 27 27 27
    Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP

    SHEAR (KT) 26 20 13 20 20 21 28 23 23 11 12 31 43
    SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 7 4 2 -3 -1 0 -2 14 2 0
    SHEAR DIR 248 251 236 229 235 228 237 241 258 238 269 226 225
    SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.5 21.7 19.6 19.6
    POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 132 131 129 123 124 123 119 87 80 80
    ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 120 118 117 115 108 106 105 105 79 73 74
    200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -53.1 -53.1
    200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 -0.2 0.0
    TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 8 5 10 7 10 3
    700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 70 67 67 51 48 46 47 49 62 62
    MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 19 20 23 21 20 16 14 13 9 9
    850 MB ENV VOR 82 79 83 78 71 106 63 68 2 12 19 11 -13
    200 MB DIV 107 85 111 120 87 93 48 32 -3 18 65 51 67
    700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 1 6 5 9 -2 -2 -3 -1 17 -1
    LAND (KM) -31 -31 67 150 233 423 233 156 120 -60 -388 -555 -722
    LAT (DEG N) 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
    LONG(DEG W) 87.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
    STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 10 8 6 7 12 14 15 16
    HEAT CONTENT 54 19 6 9 9 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0

    FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8
    T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=618)
    GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5)
    % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0)
    PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7

    INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
    6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13.
    SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12.
    VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -11. -16.
    VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1.
    VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3.
    PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1.
    200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
    THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1.
    700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
    MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 8. 6. 0. -3. -6. -12. -11.
    850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
    200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1.
    850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
    ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
    STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
    DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
    GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
    OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
    ----------------------------------------------------------
    TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 11. 17. 17. 15. 11. 9. 6. -2. -7.

    CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.4 87.6

    ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 06/19/17 06 UTC **
    (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

    Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
    12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8
    850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.39 1.0
    HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.3
    2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.28 0.7
    STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.4
    MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5
    POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.52 0.9
    D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.62 0.5
    BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0
    % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1

    SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
    SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%)
    SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
    SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
    SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
    SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
    SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
    SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)

    Matrix of RI probabilities
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.6% 9.2% 5.4% 4.5% 9.2% 7.1% 0.0%
    Logistic: 999.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6%
    Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
    Consensus: 999.0% 4.9% 3.4% 1.8% 1.5% 3.4% 2.6% 0.2%

    ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 06/19/17 06 UTC ##
    ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
    ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

    ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 06/19/2017 06 UTC **
    TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
    CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
    PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

    ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
    TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
    >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 32 38 41 44 50 50 49 44 36 30 28 27
    18HR AGO 35 34 40 43 46 52 52 51 46 38 32 30 29
    12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 43 43 42 37 29 23 21 20
    6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 34 33 28 20 DIS DIS DIS
    NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
    IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
    IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
  15. InTheCone's Avatar
    Somebody gon' get wet...

  16. NavarreMark's Avatar
  17. NavarreMark's Avatar
    A 1005 mb low pressure center is near the center of the Yucatan
    Peninsula, near 19.5N89W
    . Gale-force winds, and sea heights
    ranging from 9 feet to 14 feet, cover the Caribbean Sea from 18N
    northward between 84W and 85W. Gale-force winds are going to be
    developing in parts of the SE Gulf of Mexico during the afternoon
    hours of today
    . A surface trough extends from the 1005 mb low
    pressure center, to the Florida Big Bend. Convective
    precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from Honduras toward
    NW Cuba between 82W and 85W. Widely scattered to scattered
    moderate and isolated strong in the Gulf of Mexico from NW Cuba to
    29N between the Florida west coast and 87W. Earlier scattered to
    numerous strong precipitation, that was covering the areas that
    are from the northern half of Guatemala to 20N in the Yucatan
    Peninsula, has weakened. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
    strong remains, mostly in the coastal plains from Belize to 20N in
    the Yucatan Peninsula. The low pressure center continues to lack
    a well-defined center of circulation. Gradual development of this
    system is expected when it moves into the southern or central
    Gulf of Mexico later today and Tuesday. It is likely that a
    tropical storm, or a subtropical cyclone may form
    there. Heavy
    rains are expected to continue in parts of Central America, the
    Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba
    during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
    aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if
    necessary.
    The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during
    the next two days is high. Please read the latest NHC Tropical
    Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, and
    the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details.
  18. NavarreMark's Avatar
    At this time a CLEAR THE SHELVES ADVISORY is not warranted, but stay tuned. Juan may be issued at any time if the opportunity to create the maximum hype and panic arises.

    Do not be caught napping.
  19. kaiden's Avatar
    Good Morning Cone and Good doctor Mark. It is 75, cloudy and ewwmid.

    Keeping a determined eye to the DOOM of the south.

    This from our local NWS out of Slidel LA.

    514 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

    This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast
    Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.

    .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

    A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms exists for areas north of
    the I-12 corridor in Southeast Louisiana and for all of Southwest
    Mississippi today. The primary threat from any severe
    thunderstorms will be strong damaging wind gusts. Any severe
    thunderstorm activity should be isolated. All of the thunderstorms
    that form today, severe or non-severe, could produce frequent
    lightning strikes and locally heavy downpours.

    Small craft advisory conditions may develop tonight over the open
    Gulf waters. An east wind of 20 to 25 knots and increasing seas of
    up to 10 feet are currently forecast for the Gulf waters tonight.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

    The National Hurricane Center has a high chance of tropical
    cyclone development during the next 2 days near the Yucatan
    Peninsula and into the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. There
    is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the evolution of this
    system so please continue to follow the latest updates.

    Depending on if a tropical system develops, east winds of 20 to
    30 knots with higher gusts and waves of up to 14 feet may develop
    over the open Gulf coastal waters Tuesday and Tuesday night. Winds
    may turn to the south at 20 to 25 knots by Wednesday and remain
    at these levels through Friday. These conditions could result in
    the continuation of Small Craft Advisories for portions of the
    coastal waters Tuesday through Friday.

    If the tropical system forms, persistent east and southeast winds
    of 20 to 25 knots combined with high offshore seas could increase
    tide levels up to 2 feet above normal levels on east facing
    shores Tuesday and Wednesday.

    A period of heavy rainfall could occur across Southeast Louisiana
    and Southern Mississippi. A marginal to slight risk of excessive
    rainfall is currently forecast for the area on Tuesday and
    Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches could occur between
    Tuesday and Friday along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts
    including metro New Orleans.
  20. InTheCone's Avatar
    Morning Kai!

    Keep the option #2 supplies well stocked and be prepared to break out the bunker party barge and ark. We'll have to wait and see just how many peeps are going to need to be on board, but I'm think most of the Gulf Coasties and even MSG and Aislinn. Looks like a drencheroo with a good chance of becoming a flooderoo!
  21. kaiden's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by InTheCone
    Morning Kai!

    Keep the option #2 supplies well stocked and be prepared to break out the bunker party barge and ark. We'll have to wait and see just how many peeps are going to need to be on board, but I'm think most of the Gulf Coasties and even MSG and Aislinn. Looks like a drencheroo with a good chance of becoming a flooderoo!

    Yes Cone it is looking more and more like it. I have to go to town shortly and buy more supplies, Dee and the grand son went through a major portion of our standby Cheetos last night watching movies.
  22. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Good morning Gents.

    I had to take a break. Working storms and saving lives is exhausting.
  23. kaiden's Avatar
    Keep up the good work Mark.
  24. InTheCone's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by kaiden
    Yes Cone it is looking more and more like it. I have to go to town shortly and buy more supplies, Dee and the grand son went through a major portion of our standby Cheetos last night watching movies.
    Time to buy the giant size bags....



    You're just lucky you're grand son is under age or you'd really be in a pickle.
  25. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by InTheCone
    Time to buy the giant size bags....



    You're just lucky you're grand son is under age or you'd really be in a pickle.

    I always keep a sacrificial case or two of Busch Light on hand for visitors who haven't brought their own option #2 supplies.

    Beggars can't be choosy.
  26. LaughingCat's Avatar
    Somebody get TuMama on standby as well.
  27. InTheCone's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by NavarreMark
    I always keep a sacrificial case or two of Busch Light on hand for visitors who haven't brought their own option #2 supplies.

    Beggars can't be choosy.
    ....and college kids couldn't care less, they'll drink all of it without blinking an eye. I was always amazed by how much 'Natty Light they could drink without retching.

    Hopefully we'll have a drive by from TuMama before "The Event" really gets cranking.
  28. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by LaughingCat
    Somebody get TuMama on standby as well.

    Yep. The public will be in dire need of her services.
  29. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by InTheCone
    ....and college kids couldn't care less, they'll drink all of it without blinking an eye. I was always amazed by how much 'Natty Light they could drink without retching.

    Hopefully we'll have a drive by from TuMama before "The Event" really gets cranking.

    Every time I get involved with a college graduation I purchase multiple kegs of the stuff.

    I always have my own well hidden supply of the stuff I prefer.
  30. InTheCone's Avatar
    Florida BlackDar showing that DOOM is becoming nigh.....

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