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InTheCone

June & July: Early Mayhem or Meh?

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by on 06-01-2017 at 08:55 AM (10410 Views)
The Season has arrived and it’s time to start looking for mischief in the Caribbean and GOM for early season rain makers and hopefully not much more.





Be Prepared to BS/SS and practice those option #2 protocols and study up on the map of DOOM....

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Updated 06-01-2017 at 09:04 AM by InTheCone

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  1. blakels's Avatar
    FIRST!
  2. InTheCone's Avatar
    Morning Blakels!

    Off to the Bunker Ban room with you!

    I haven't seen the Miami office this bullish on since MR blew by last October....

    Friday and Saturday: Both the GFS and ECMWF prog a healthy swath
    of tropical moisture to stream from the southern Gulf of Mexico
    northeastward over the Florida peninsula. The GFS time-height
    cross section shows moisture increasing at nearly all levels from
    the surface to 300 mb with PWs periodically climbing to over 2
    inches. A weak low pressure disturbance over the Gulf will slowly
    approaches our region from the west, passing multiple shortwave
    disturbances our direction. This should enhance instability and
    further increase the chance of showers/storms. Greater mid and
    upper level cloud coverage will help to moderate temperatures.
    Maximums may only reach the mid 80s across much of the CWA on
    Friday and Saturday, around 5 degrees below average for this time
    of year.

    Sunday through mid next week: Long range guidance begins to
    deepen a low pressure trough along the eastern seaboard Sunday
    into early next week. In response, winds will begin to veer to
    the southwest, out ahead of this feature. As abundant tropical
    moisture continues to stream overhead, shower and thunderstorm
    chances will remain elevated through at least mid next week.
  3. blakels's Avatar
    Good luck with the rain Cone. Looks like we have a couple rain free days here but it will be back by the end of the weekend. 3.6" above average since March 1.
  4. InTheCone's Avatar
    A big chunk of the middle of the country has been doused by too much rain. Hopefully it will switch to down here, the elongated sandbar can handle quite a bit.

    Ais' BreakFastCast - speaking of endless rain...

    Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds up to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

    Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. East winds up to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
  5. InTheCone's Avatar
    Global precip anomaly map (June 1-July 1) shows wet FL, dry Aussie, wet southern #Chile, dry NZ, maybe normal #CapeTown rain? #SAdrought





  6. NavarreMark's Avatar
    SIXTH!!!
  7. InTheCone's Avatar
    Morning Dr. Mark!

    I'm not really here so my posts don't count
  8. InTheCone's Avatar
    Hmmmmm....

  9. InTheCone's Avatar


  10. NavarreMark's Avatar
    I have a bad feeling about that.
  11. Aislinn's Avatar
    Good morning and afternoon! Does this mean I get to be seventh? I like 7. We had one heck of a storm a couple of hours ago. Garden and new plants are getting a very nice soaking.

    Breakfast’s on the sideboard: Eggs Benedict, bacon, thick slices of smoked honey ham, sausage casserole, smoked trout hash, seasoned home fries, pecan sticky buns, corn fritters, herbed egg potato bake, cinnamon oatmeal, skewered fresh fruit, tea or coffee, flavored creamers on the side. Enjoy!
  12. kaiden's Avatar
    8th
  13. kaiden's Avatar
    I took off for a couple of days, and everyJuan moved. But it is a nice new home Cone.

    It is 75 and a very light off and on drizzle.

    Aislinn, for breakfast I sure would like a plate of sausage casserole, and a cup of coffee. Please and thank you.

    We are supposed to go to Biloxi for a ball game this evening. But It's looking like rain out.
  14. InTheCone's Avatar
    Morning Aislinn & Kai!

    I cheated - I put June and July together since they are usually pretty quiet.

    Yummy - BreakFast time!

    I'll have some Eggs Benedict, bacon, thick slices of smoked honey ham, sausage casserole, smoked trout hash, seasoned home fries and coffee - TYVM Aislinn! I hope you and all the Gulf Coasties™ don't get drowned.
  15. InTheCone's Avatar
    Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits 36m36 minutes agoMore



    Moisture from TD2 is streaming into the GOM, and while low pressure may form there, strong shear should prevent tropical development.





  16. InTheCone's Avatar
    Lots of new stuff from the NHC this year...


  17. InTheCone's Avatar
  18. KanKunKid's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by InTheCone
    It's Justice Zyethot. Another wild guess.
  19. InTheCone's Avatar
    Afternoon Triple K!

    Wild guesses are what they all do best. Almost as much fun as chasing wild geeses, like the Canadians trying to take out the Tamponian Shield™ next week

  20. InTheCone's Avatar
    Will next week be more interestinger? Stay tuned to your local Bunker station....

  21. libgoon's Avatar
    Hiya Folks !! First day of the season !!!!!


    Gap shooter !!!!!!!!!!!

  22. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by InTheCone
    Lots of new stuff from the NHC this year...




    So out of the loop these days !
  23. InTheCone's Avatar
    Afternoon Lib!

    Tampa is soooo DOOM
  24. McBart ender's Avatar
    Cone, I deeply appreciate the post of the new graphics, but it puts me in a bit of a quandary. I'm not sure if I should post it over to the Rhorschack blog, or mail it directly to Penthouse Letters.

    Quote Originally Posted by InTheCone
    Lots of new stuff from the NHC this year...


    Updated 06-02-2017 at 12:14 AM by McBart ender (Well Juan of us had to step up and say something. That's just toooooo rich to let go by.)
  25. McBart ender's Avatar
    Actually I can't believe NOAA censors allowed that on their site. I used to work for a NASA subcontractor, and all of our charts (even the internal ones) were pre-screened for even the slightest potentially offensive pixel. It really was a P.I.T.A.
  26. InTheCone's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by McBart ender
    Actually I can't believe NOAA censors allowed that on their site. I used to work for a NASA subcontractor, and all of our charts (even the internal ones) were pre-screened for even the slightest potentially offensive pixel. It really was a P.I.T.A.
    The funny thing is that those are some of the actual graphics from MR last fall. They couldn't very well alter what had been reality, but it does look bad
  27. InTheCone's Avatar
    Good Morning Bunkerites!

    Looks like Fl. is finally going to get the soaking it so richly deserves - nice moistcha' plume headed this way.....

  28. InTheCone's Avatar
    Ais' BreakFastCast - Maybe a break in the deluge?

    Today: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

    Tonight: Mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Lows around 70. Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
  29. Aislinn's Avatar
    Good morning and afternoon! I've been getting a bit done already, now ready for a nap when I'm just getting my coffee! I hope you get that rain, Cone, know you guys need it.

    Breakfast’s on the sideboard: country ham with red-eye gravy, biscuits and grits, sausage polenta with nested eggs, egg and sweet potato scramble, pancakes with butter and syrup, strawberries and cream oatmeal, bacon wrapped donuts, bagels with cream cheese and jelly, fresh fruit, tea and coffee, flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
  30. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Some interesting developments in the Bay of Campeche. Juan should keep an eye on this. Although it's not widely known, the unique topography there enhances rapid tropical cyclone genesis.
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