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InTheCone

September:To the Acme and Beyond!

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by on 09-01-2017 at 08:12 AM (25491 Views)
It’s hard to imagine that we have not reached the peak of the season after what Harvey has done, but up we go!



The NHC is going to be busy, at least to start the month...





Let's just hope we can make it through the rest of the month without any more mischief hitting land!

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  1. KanKunKid's Avatar
    FIRST!!!
  2. KanKunKid's Avatar
    SECOND!
  3. KanKunKid's Avatar
    THIRD!
  4. KanKunKid's Avatar
    That waiting 30 seconds between posts gets old fast!
    My ADD/ADHD started flaring up!

    I had to go find my institutional size dispenser of ritalin. (Not to be confused with an old gf named Rita Lynn. She was good for my ADDADHD though. Lots of things to capture my attention, a virtual plethora if you will, and if you won't, maybe you should.)

    Nice new blog ITC, I LIKE it!


    Nothing like a load of to start a blog out with!
  5. DestinJeff's Avatar
    What in the wide wide world of sports is happening in here?

    Damn Blew Nog buried my retelling of the greatest story that never happened.
  6. NavarreMark's Avatar
    SIXTH!!!
  7. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by DestinJeff
    What in the wide wide world of sports is happening in here?

    Damn Blew Nog buried my retelling of the greatest story that never happened.

    It is rather strange that Juans creative writing skills always come to the fore just before the Juance NEW BLOG becomes an old blog and there is a new NEW BLOG, thus burying Juans creative talents to all but posterity. That is the main reason that none of us has ever been able to secure a contract with a major publisher.

    I suspect a conspiracy with Cone and Dewey in this matter, but it may not be anything like that at all. It may be merely coincedence which means GOD did it. If that is the case it is our fate to carry out the thankless task of saving lives as Fake Blog Mets forever more. We should accept our fate and have some more Cheetohs and wash it down with option #2 supplies prior to noon.

    That is our only way of sticking it to the Man.
  8. Tulsahurrcane's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by NavarreMark
    It is rather strange that Juans creative writing skills always come to the fore just before the Juance NEW BLOG becomes an old blog and there is a new NEW BLOG, thus burying Juans creative talents to all but posterity. That is the main reason that none of us has ever been able to secure a contract with a major publisher.

    I suspect a conspiracy with Cone and Dewey in this matter, but it may not be anything like that at all. It may be merely coincedence which means GOD did it. If that is the case it is our fate to carry out the thankless task of saving lives as Fake Blog Mets forever more. We should accept our fate and have some more Cheetohs and wash it down with option #2 supplies prior to noon.

    That is our only way of sticking it to the Man.
    Or you could copy and paste.

    Probably too mundane for those on a higher creative plane.
  9. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Tulsahurrcane
    Or you could copy and paste.

    Probably too mundane for those on a higher creative plane.

    It is beneath Juans dignity.

    Therefore, Option #2 is our only recourse.

    It could be worse. We could be Tamponians.
  10. InTheCone's Avatar
    I wish I was having a confab with the Dewster, it would be nice to hear from him.

    In weather news, the Euro blinked first and now has the beginning of a major recurve.....



  11. InTheCone's Avatar
    In the other good news department, the NHC as well as all the models have dropped the potential of a system in the GOM.

    Ais' DryingOut-o-Cast -

    Today: Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds up to 5 mph.

    Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Northwest winds up to 5 mph in the evening becoming light.
  12. Tulsahurrcane's Avatar
    Not to interrupt the flow of anything else, but I have a question that will seem very ignorant mostly because it is. Do small hurricanes remain small once they've formed? Irma is being called small at the start as though it will remain that way. What allows hurricanes to grow after they've organized? Is it mostly through merging with another disturbance? And eyewall replacement cycles? I thought they would continue to grow over warm water but last few small ones stayed that way. Does it take getting into the Gulf? If anyone can clarify that at all I would appreciate it. Google isn't much help.




    Technically that was 5 questions.
    Updated 09-01-2017 at 12:23 PM by Tulsahurrcane
  13. InTheCone's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Tulsahurrcane
    Not to interrupt the flow of anything else, but I have a question that will seem very ignorant mostly because it is. Do small hurricanes remain small once they've formed? Irma is being called small at the start as though it will remain that way. What allows hurricanes to grow after they've organized? Is it mostly through merging with another disturbance? I thought they would continue to grow over warm water but last few small ones stayed that way. Does it take getting into the Gulf? If anyone can clarify that at all I would appreciate it. Google isn't much help.




    Technically that was 4 questions.
    Levi mentioned that he thought it would get bigger as it traveled west, and I believe eye wall replacement cycles can cause them to expand somewhat. Interaction with land can cause them to change size and, of course, intensity. Ike became much larger after going over Cuba, and was somewhat weaker, but the wind field expanded quite a bit. Others may be able to give you more than I can, but it's a start
  14. Tulsahurrcane's Avatar
    Thanks! Sorry, I edited mine to mention eyewall replacement in case you're wondering about the 5th question, lol. I appreciate it!
  15. Aislinn's Avatar
    Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyjuan! Drying out is very good. To walk across my yard or property means to sink down into squishiness, there is no other word for it. And a recurve on Irma? I'm all for it! I'll even start calling my recurve Irma if that'll keep her away from here. Good question, Tulsa.

    Breakfast’s on the sideboard: southwest breakfast scramble, huevos rancheros, pecan and wild boar bacon waffles with syrup, sausage, egg and cheese burritos, breakfast tacos, spicy omelet egg rolls, green chili egg bake, southwestern fatata, ham, cheese, egg and potato enchiladas with green enchilada sauce, fresh fruit, tea or coffee. Enjoy!
  16. LaughingCat's Avatar
    SIXTEENTH!!!
  17. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Tulsahurrcane
    Not to interrupt the flow of anything else, but I have a question that will seem very ignorant mostly because it is. Do small hurricanes remain small once they've formed? Irma is being called small at the start as though it will remain that way. What allows hurricanes to grow after they've organized? Is it mostly through merging with another disturbance? And eyewall replacement cycles? I thought they would continue to grow over warm water but last few small ones stayed that way. Does it take getting into the Gulf? If anyone can clarify that at all I would appreciate it. Google isn't much help.




    Technically that was 5 questions.

    It's the pattern.
  18. NavarreMark's Avatar
    YUMMY!!!!

    I'll have three plates of huevos rancheros with extra helpings of tortillas and a side of green chile please.

    Thank You very much.
  19. Tulsahurrcane's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by NavarreMark
    It's the pattern.
    Thanks!
  20. KanKunKid's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by NavarreMark
    It is beneath Juans dignity.

    Therefore, Option #2 is our only recourse.

    It could be worse. We could be Tamponians.
    Yeah! Copy and paste.... that's just what they WANT you to do...
  21. KanKunKid's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by DestinJeff
    What in the wide wide world of sports is happening in here?

    Damn Blew Nog buried my retelling of the greatest story that never happened.


    FROM YE OLDE BLOG

    Quote Originally Posted by DestinJeff
    No names, but it starts with a "B", and ends with an "onnie". She was a wicked bìtch the likes of which that area had never seen since the last time a cloud of her ilk passed overhead, which in fact was the previous afternoon. That's neither here nor there, but as the story goes it was there not here.

    Kkk's telling of the tale of that fateful day is layered in nuance and innuendo, and if Juan is lucky, outuendo. Nojuan knows what that is, but we have faith in TK that he can make into something for sake of the story. It's what story tellers do, except when they don't. But he always does.

    As I'm a mere 14 years of age, my memories of Desert Storm are quite vague. Some might say non existent. But I will tell you that the conditions that afternoon did remind me of my time in the Nam. It was a dreadful and horrible thing, except for the bikini tops part.

    Now years later as I reflect and make up different realities about the whole event that never even happened, I'm inclined to come clean and let you all in on a little secret...

    Dewey and I are
  22. Tulsahurrcane's Avatar
    That was beneath you 3K.
  23. KanKunKid's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Tulsahurrcane
    Not to interrupt the flow of anything else, but I have a question that will seem very ignorant mostly because it is. Do small hurricanes remain small once they've formed? Irma is being called small at the start as though it will remain that way. What allows hurricanes to grow after they've organized? Is it mostly through merging with another disturbance? And eyewall replacement cycles? I thought they would continue to grow over warm water but last few small ones stayed that way. Does it take getting into the Gulf? If anyone can clarify that at all I would appreciate it. Google isn't much help.




    Technically that was 5 questions.
    Seriously, it takes a few things. A Hurricane is like a self-fueling engine, so the more fuel available (warm humid air/water) the more it can grow, but it can't stay too long in one spot or the waters underneath it will churn and bring up cooler water which does not rise as warm moist air does. It helps if there is a system above it to assist in lifting the moist air, but if there is sheer above, it tears off the tops and is kind of like a mean kid in a wagon, dragging his feet. Surrounding air masses, and troughs and ridges can steer it and keep it from getting larger by restraining its outer flow and causing the energy to turn instead of expand. As the air rises it cools and falls, because of the cooler temps at higher altitudes and so the warm moist air turns into cold rain and as it falls, it displaces the warm air and pushes it. Because of coriolis force, instead of these dynamic forces jumping up and down like a pogo stick, they are forced to circle like the water in your toilet when you flush it.
    So as it gains in movement of air and moisture, it spins faster. But the winds close to the eyewall spin the fastest and eventually, at the center around the eye, there is less fuel once a hurricane is spinning around Cat3 or more, so another band forms further away and eventually sucks the power out of the inner eyewall and kills it. This weakens the hurricane until the new eyewall ramps up and takes the old Juans place.
    If this happens during sheer, or dry air intake, it can cause the hurricane to lose a lot of it's energy or even Peter out. It's not a good thing to see.

    Size matters!
    Here is a blurb on eye size..
    The effect of the size of hurricane eye on hurricane intensity is studied based on the storm-scale kinetic energy balance within a hurricane. The study indicates that the potential intensity that a hurricane can achieve under given thermodynamic environmental conditions can be highly sensitive to the size of the hurricane eye depending on the scale of the hurricane circulation and its thermodynamic efficiency defined as the effectiveness of converting surface entropy input into kinetic energy. The result shows that a hurricane of a smaller eye tends to develop into a stronger hurricane. This is because within a hurricane, the surface kinetic energy dissipation is more radially confined to the hurricane eyewall of high wind speeds than the kinetic energy generation corresponding to the surface entropy flux mainly due to their differential dependences on the surface velocity. With a smaller eye, the area of high winds on which the dissipation relies more heavily than the surface entropy flux is smaller, implying the entire energy balance has to be achieved with a higher value of maximum surface wind. Sensitivity study on the surface exchange coefficients under high wind speeds where uncertainty exists suggests that the intensity dependence on the size of hurricane eye is not very sensitive to the uncertainty-related changes in the coefficients.

    Weixing Shen wrote that.
    Updated 09-01-2017 at 01:32 PM by KanKunKid (I hope the BCL doesn't catch it. I wrote "Peter out" and then "size matters" right after..shhhh!)
  24. KanKunKid's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Tulsahurrcane
    That was beneath you 3K.
    I feel so dirty now. I have taken 2 baths already..

    Maybe I should have used a clean towel...

    I feel like a such a literary slut!
  25. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by InTheCone
    I wish I was having a confab with the Dewster, it would be nice to hear from him.

    In weather news, the Euro blinked first and now has the beginning of a major recurve.....

    It always looked Fishy to me

  26. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by KanKunKid
    Seriously, it takes a few things. A Hurricane is like a self-fueling engine, so the more fuel available (warm humid air/water) the more it can grow, but it can't stay too long in one spot or the waters underneath it will churn and bring up cooler water which does not rise as warm moist air does. It helps if there is a system above it to assist in lifting the moist air, but if there is sheer above, it tears off the tops and is kind of like a mean kid in a wagon, dragging his feet. Surrounding air masses, and troughs and ridges can steer it and keep it from getting larger by restraining its outer flow and causing the energy to turn instead of expand. As the air rises it cools and falls, because of the cooler temps at higher altitudes and so the warm moist air turns into cold rain and as it falls, it displaces the warm air and pushes it. Because of coriolis force, instead of these dynamic forces jumping up and down like a pogo stick, they are forced to circle like the water in your toilet when you flush it.
    So as it gains in movement of air and moisture, it spins faster. But the winds close to the eyewall spin the fastest and eventually, at the center around the eye, there is less fuel once a hurricane is spinning around Cat3 or more, so another band forms further away and eventually sucks the power out of the inner eyewall and kills it. This weakens the hurricane until the new eyewall ramps up and takes the old Juans place.
    If this happens during sheer, or dry air intake, it can cause the hurricane to lose a lot of it's energy or even Peter out. It's not a good thing to see.

    Size matters!
    Here is a blurb on eye size..
    The effect of the size of hurricane eye on hurricane intensity is studied based on the storm-scale kinetic energy balance within a hurricane. The study indicates that the potential intensity that a hurricane can achieve under given thermodynamic environmental conditions can be highly sensitive to the size of the hurricane eye depending on the scale of the hurricane circulation and its thermodynamic efficiency defined as the effectiveness of converting surface entropy input into kinetic energy. The result shows that a hurricane of a smaller eye tends to develop into a stronger hurricane. This is because within a hurricane, the surface kinetic energy dissipation is more radially confined to the hurricane eyewall of high wind speeds than the kinetic energy generation corresponding to the surface entropy flux mainly due to their differential dependences on the surface velocity. With a smaller eye, the area of high winds on which the dissipation relies more heavily than the surface entropy flux is smaller, implying the entire energy balance has to be achieved with a higher value of maximum surface wind. Sensitivity study on the surface exchange coefficients under high wind speeds where uncertainty exists suggests that the intensity dependence on the size of hurricane eye is not very sensitive to the uncertainty-related changes in the coefficients.

    Weixing Shen wrote that.

    That is an excellent observation Dr. Kid.

    It passes peeer review with the minor suggestion of including, COC, Balls of Convection, Upwelling and Poleward in your analcyst.

    Carry on.
  27. Tulsahurrcane's Avatar
    Thanks for the explanation 3k. I understood part of it...The mean kid in a wagon and the toilet bowl. I promise I won't mention you said Peters out and size matters together.

    Seriously thanks for taking the time. Your analogies are quite helpful and right on my level! Weixing Shen not so much.
  28. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Juan good thing about the NEW BLOG is that it relegated the PornSmutBot to the no love section of The Bunker.

    For now.
  29. KanKunKid's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by NavarreMark
    That is an excellent observation Dr. Kid.

    It passes peeer review with the minor suggestion of including, COC, Balls of Convection, Upwelling and Poleward in your analcyst.

    Carry on.
    I thought about adding those items but I pretty much blew my wad on Peters out.
  30. Tulsahurrcane's Avatar


    And it's a good thing the bot is gone. We wouldn't want any smut on here.


    Oh and Hi Lib!
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