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InTheCone

Oct./Nov. – Peace & Quiet or Doom and Gloom?

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by on 10-01-2017 at 09:31 AM (4590 Views)
Down we go and we can’t get to the bottom soon enough! It’s been a long season for many people and it’s going to take a long time for them to recover.

Oct. can be busy in the Caribbean with the storms heading to the north and the early indications are that we will see some activity in that area early to mid month.



All we can do is keep watching and be as ready as we can….





Time to study “The Chart” and hope that we can get Homer to the bottom without any more DOOM days.

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  1. McBart ender's Avatar
    Hoooooray for Blop! Luv's me some bloping.

    But that's about 5 for me, So I can only say 'I'll try'.
  2. Tulsahurrcane's Avatar
    Anytime works for me tomorrow. Is 7:00 ET better?
  3. McBart ender's Avatar
    It's better. I'll log on after dinner and see if y'all are still chatting. Please don't adjust meeting times just for me. I will get involved Juan way or another.
  4. InTheCone's Avatar
    I have no problem kicking in some for a buy out, but I think just contacting Dewey might be the biggest problem of all. I don't believe anyJuan has had any success with that for quite some time.

    The 12z Euro is still showing a disturbance in the force, in almost the same spot as yesterday, but a little stronger. Definitely something to keep an eye on....

  5. Landfall2004's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Tulsahurrcane
    Well, maybe we should designate a time for a chat...it still works... and talk about it. I can do until 4:00 central or after 8:00 or tomorrow about any time if I know ahead

    It's a long shot but we could give it a whirl.

    I'll go ahead and throw out tomorrow at 6:00 PM ET if anyone wants to.
    Tuesday is family dinner night and I won't be free of guests until about 7:30PM. I'll try to join in.
    Updated 10-02-2017 at 08:58 PM by Landfall2004
  6. StAugustineFL's Avatar
    Good afternoon. Little snippet from my favorite local met Mike Buresh.......

    The Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean will be - as I've hit on often recently - the place to watch over the next week to 10 days. There are indications of a general lowering of surface pressures across this area which might be a hint pointing to tropical "mischief" the first couple weeks of this month.

    It looks like general & broad low pressure will evolve over parts of the Caribbean/Central America & Gulf of Mexico this week into the following week. Depending on any land interaction, this could eventually evolve into a tropical cyclone & will need to be watched closely as this is the time of year for slow but sometimes strong tropical development over the still very warm water of the Southern Gulf &/or Caribbean. Forecast models are not of much help on solving the details for right now, so we'll just have to see how things evolve in the coming days realizing there is a strong signal for tropical development in/over/&/or near the Gulf/Caribbean/SW Atlantic. The models seems to be struggling with all the low pressure & quite literally pop up a new tropical system in one model run that isn't there in the next one only to be replaced new development somewhere else. So we don't want to get too caught up in individual model runs at this point but realize that the pattern does favor tropical development over the SW Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico &/or Caribbean. STAY TUNED!
  7. Tulsahurrcane's Avatar
    Well, lets shoot for 8:00 ET tomorrow night. In the meantime I'll try to make contact with Dewey just to see if he'd consider anything. (Without any specifics. As we have none. )
  8. Tulsahurrcane's Avatar
    Sad news on Tom Petty. Always one of my personal favorites.
  9. Cos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Tulsahurrcane
    Well, lets shoot for 8:00 ET tomorrow night. In the meantime I'll try to make contact with Dewey just to see if he'd consider anything. (Without any specifics. As we have none. )
    Good luck trying to contact Dewey. He's the Satoshi Nakomoto of weather sites.
    Maybe if we offered to pay him in bitcoin he'd be interested. I'd chip in.
  10. hurricat's Avatar
    I'd chip in on buying the site. I don't know much about building/running websites but I am good at picking that sort of stuff up after some research.
  11. Tulsahurrcane's Avatar
    This is great to see interest in owning part of the Bunker. We could be the Green Bay Packers of "weather and stuff" sites. Let's chat at 8:00 tomorrow night (But of course no idea if we can reach Dewey so it could just be an exercise.)

    Hmmmm...bitcoin, now that's an idea.
  12. hurricat's Avatar
    I wish the models had more clarity on the potential DOOM. I have an important project at work next Monday through Thursday that is weather sensitive. Rain=bad

    I guess it will be a nail biter until later this week.
  13. Ossqss's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Tulsahurrcane
    Sad news on Tom Petty. Always one of my personal favorites.
    Tom's last dance, unfortunately......

    I will help with the site as possible, but nothin happens without a Dewey.
  14. Tulsahurrcane's Avatar
    Thanks OSS. This has absolutely nothing to do with anything. Just a Bunker late night distraction. It's takes a minute to get going but funny. There is a period of a few seconds near the first when it loses sound.

    https://youtu.be/ZiakoJ532sA

    I'm posting this as the agent and individual and not the person.



    3K what's your status? Are you en route home to US, home to Phillipines? Sleeping in airport?
    Updated 10-03-2017 at 03:55 AM by Tulsahurrcane
  15. InTheCone's Avatar
    Good Morning Bunkerites!

    Area near the YukkyTan is up to 30% over 5 days, the other area is just a rain maker.....



    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A sharp trough of low pressure, located over the northwestern
    Bahamas, continues to produce an area of scattered showers and
    thunderstorms. Although tropical cyclone formation is not expected
    due to hostile upper-level winds, the disturbance is forecast to
    move westward at 25 to 30 mph for the next day or so, spreading
    locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds in brief squalls
    across portions of the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, and
    across much of South Florida later morning and continuing into the
    afternoon. Additional information on this disturbance can be found
    in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA Tropical Analysis and
    Forecast Branch, and also in forecast products and statements issued
    by your local weather service office.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    2. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the northwestern
    Caribbean Sea within the next few days. Some slow development of
    this system is possible by the weekend while the low drifts
    northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

    Additional information on the Bahamas disturbance can be found in
    High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
    AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the
    Web at Ocean Prediction Center - North Atlantic High Seas Forecast.

    Forecaster Stewart
  16. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Good morning Cone.

    That doesn't look good.
  17. InTheCone's Avatar
    Morning Dr. Mark!

    No it doesn't, but this even looks wurst...

    Adrian Linares‏ @Adriansweather 19m19 minutes agoMore



    High Probability from EPS near 100% for a tropical depression to form in the Western Caribbean late this week into the weekend.





  18. InTheCone's Avatar
    Ais' BreakFastCast doesn't look to bad....

    Today: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.

    Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. East winds up to 5 mph.
  19. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by InTheCone
    Morning Dr. Mark!

    No it doesn't, but this even looks wurst...

    Adrian Linares‏ @Adriansweather 19m19 minutes agoMore



    High Probability from EPS near 100% for a tropical depression to form in the Western Caribbean late this week into the weekend.






    His ability to hype a cloud is something that us FBMs can aspire too.
  20. NavarreMark's Avatar
  21. Aislinn's Avatar
    Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyjuan! Yesterday turned out to be beautiful, overcast and 70s. Rained on us in class, but rain felt good. I'll try to be in for the chat as well. I get home around 6:30 and have to put dogs out first, so may be a little late.

    Breakfast's on the sideboard: Chipotle Chilaquiles, Loaded breakfast potato skins, Avocado Toast with Chile Flakes and Crushed Pistachios, cheesy ham and hash brown casserole, cinnamon monkey bread, sausage balls, strawberry crepes, baked oatmeal, thick slices of honey ham with home fries, corned beef hash with cheese topped with two fried eggs, fresh fruit, Juice, Tea, coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
  22. InTheCone's Avatar
    Morning Aislinn!

    Sounds like fairly good weather there - very windy and showery here.

    BreakFast!

    I'll have corned beef hash with cheese topped with two fried eggs and coffee - TYVM!


    I'm still wondering about Kai, it's been too long since he's stopped in.
  23. Landfall2004's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Tulsahurrcane
    Thanks OSS. This has absolutely nothing to do with anything. Just a Bunker late night distraction. It's takes a minute to get going but funny. There is a period of a few seconds near the first when it loses sound.

    https://youtu.be/ZiakoJ532sA

    I'm posting this as the agent and individual and not the person.



    3K what's your status? Are you en route home to US, home to Phillipines? Sleeping in airport?

    Talk about your jailhouse lawyers and technicalities--this guy had it nailed! Well, almost.

    I know people who try to get out of arguments with all those twists!

    Anyway, funny, T! I got so busy watching it, I almost was late leaving for my hair appt. Had to come back to finish it.

    I love October. We are having a Florida October like I remember as a kid--breezy and rainy--like a spooky movie. Made the arrival of Halloween just that much more dramatic and fun.

    We had quite the deluge and winds 25-35 mph last night. Being up in my bedroom perch on the 3rd floor, with a metal roof, we get the full affect. I love stormy weather.
  24. InTheCone's Avatar
    Adrian Linares‏ @Adriansweather 5m5 minutes agoMore



    ECMF forecast genesis for disturbed wx in the caribbean. Could potentially have impacts in #Florida Map courtesy of @alanbrammer





  25. KanKunKid's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Tulsahurrcane
    Thanks OSS. This has absolutely nothing to do with anything. Just a Bunker late night distraction. It's takes a minute to get going but funny. There is a period of a few seconds near the first when it loses sound.

    https://youtu.be/ZiakoJ532sA

    I'm posting this as the agent and individual and not the person.



    3K what's your status? Are you en route home to US, home to Phillipines? Sleeping in airport?
    I am heading back to my Philippine estate tomorrow. I was in Manila hoping to negotiate with Air Asia to get me another ticket and supposedly they are working on that, but "no tickey no shirty." I am going through other options, Once I go home anyway, it will be virtually impossible to get anything out of them. My wife is on their twitter and if they don't do something or refuse to do anything, she will go public with it.
    But worst case scenario is I hire an attorney and get them for all the damages.
    All the news here is clogged up by the Las Vegas shooting. It is a sad thing and I know Jason Aldean is very upset about it occurring at his concert. But, the news should just let go. It's making such a big deal that it is becoming detrimental.
    Anyway, I will be making lemonaid, because of all the lemons I have been getting, or maybe even a Margarita, huh?


    I should be back on a plane in a few days, but I can't hang out in Manila, it's too expensive...and dirty and crazy.

    Hang in there Everybody!

    I read that piece OSS put in the AGW blog about how the NOAA arrived at their temperature history. Very inciteful and scary. I was surprised how much firm data was just a WAG, but published as fact.
    It was very educational.
  26. KanKunKid's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by NavarreMark
    I have a bad feeling that this post had an unpostable graphic.
  27. InTheCone's Avatar
    Sounds like a nightmare Triple K, I'm going to wait for some sort of teleportation for long distance travel.

    Incoming! Flush the busses and gas up the evacuspots!

  28. Tulsahurrcane's Avatar
    But don't wake up Landfall yet!

    I read some great news today. 3 scientists got the Nobel prize for detecting gravitational waves. (Thats the short version of their research.). I have long suspected waves with respect to gravity. These are especially apparent when I get on the scale. Thank Heavens it's a wave and nothing permanent. This is one of the first Nobel prize situations in a long time I can personally relate to other than when Bob Dylan won for literature.
  29. Ossqss's Avatar
    Howdy

    Rut Roh

  30. InTheCone's Avatar
    Afternoon T & Oss!

    I've ridden a few of those gravity waves into the pavement and let me tell you, they leave a mark!

    We won't wake up LF, but it still could get more interestinger....

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