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InTheCone

Oct./Nov. – Peace & Quiet or Doom and Gloom?

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by on 10-01-2017 at 09:31 AM (4590 Views)
Down we go and we can’t get to the bottom soon enough! It’s been a long season for many people and it’s going to take a long time for them to recover.

Oct. can be busy in the Caribbean with the storms heading to the north and the early indications are that we will see some activity in that area early to mid month.



All we can do is keep watching and be as ready as we can….





Time to study “The Chart” and hope that we can get Homer to the bottom without any more DOOM days.

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  1. NavarreMark's Avatar
    FIRST!!!!
  2. libgoon's Avatar
    Second .... Nice Graphics

    Hopefully very quiet ... Been a horrible season
  3. libgoon's Avatar
    Bit of spin in the Gulf ... Just sayin ....




    Hnc Sat pages have got very laggy recently for me .... Have over 50 mb more speed now ... but the pages are so slow to load ,,,,,
  4. libgoon's Avatar
  5. InTheCone's Avatar
    Good Morning Dr. Mark & Lib!

    I don't think the models have a clue as to what is going to spin up, they are just pretty sure something is going to. Euro. run is certainly strange.....

  6. libgoon's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by InTheCone
    Good Morning Dr. Mark & Lib!

    I don't think the models have a clue as to what is going to spin up, they are just pretty sure something is going to. Euro. run is certainly strange.....
    Yep they are smelling something ( I believe the euro has difficulty or original timing of small weak systems ).. Hwrf shows be recognising 99L soon and the spags will be out in about an hour
  7. InTheCone's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by libgoon
    Yep they are smelling something ( I believe the euro has difficulty or original timing of small weak systems ).. Hwrf shows be recognising 99L soon and the spags will be out in about an hour
    I guess it's going to be Juan of those wait and see what spins up where situations.
  8. InTheCone's Avatar
    Ais' BreakFastCAst - Sunday Showers?

    Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.

    Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the upper 60s. East winds up to 5 mph.
  9. StAugustineFL's Avatar
    Morning. Thanks for the fresh page Cone.

    I am stuck in the throes of the great local nor'easter of 2017.



    MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0847
    NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
    557 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2017

    AREAS AFFECTED...NERN FL PENINSULA

    CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

    VALID 010955Z - 011350Z

    SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING CORES OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
    ALONG THE NERN FL PENINSULA FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS.
    RAINFALL RATES NEAR 3 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY LEAD TO
    FLASH FLOODING.

    DISCUSSION...EXPERIMENTAL GOES 16 10.3 MICRON CLEAN WINDOW IR
    IMAGERY SHOWED THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER
    ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NERN FLORIDA AFTER THE WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS
    TIED TO A WEAKENING MCV FARTHER EAST OVER OPEN WATER. KJAX RADAR
    IMAGERY SHOWED SLOW MOVING CORES OF HEAVY RAIN IN ST. JOHNS
    COUNTY...STRETCHING SOUTH ALONG I-95 INTO FLAGLER COUNTY WITH TWO
    WUNDERGROUND.COM OBSERVATION STATIONS JUST NORTH OF PALM COAST
    REPORTING RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 IN/HR ENDING 0920Z...SLIGHTLY
    HIGHER THAN RADAR ESTIMATED RAIN RATES OF 1.5 IN/HR.

    KJAX VAD WINDS AND RAP ANALYSES SUPPORT ROUGHLY 30 KT OF
    CONVERGENT EASTERLY 850 MB FLOW INTO THE COAST WHERE LFC-EL MEAN
    WINDS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY. IT APPEARS A SMALL MCV IN SOUTHERN
    ST. JOHNS COUNTY COULD BE LATCHED ONTO A TROUGH ORIENTED NORTHEAST
    TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING HEAVY RAINFALL NEARLY
    STATIONARY OVER THE REGION. SPC MESOANALYSES INDICATED THE
    RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF WEAK MLCAPE WITH
    VALUES OF 100-250 J/KG. SHORT TERM FORECASTS FROM THE RAP/HRRR
    SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND CAPE WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME OVER
    THE NEXT FEW HOURS AMID PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.2 TO 2.3
    INCHES.

    WHILE MANY OF THE RECENT HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR CYCLES HAVE
    NOT BEEN HANDLING ONGOING RAINFALL WELL...THE 01Z RUN OF THE
    EXPERIMENTAL HRRR IS CLOSE TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...ALBEIT
    DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THIS RUN AND SHORT TERM EXTRAPOLATION
    SUGGEST 3-6 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
    NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...FOCUSING FROM CLAY/PUTNAM INTO ST. JOHNS
    AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO FLASH
    FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF IT FALLS OVER MORE URBAN LOCATIONS.

  10. InTheCone's Avatar
    Morning Aug!

    Looks like a right proper drencheroo Nothing like that down here, but it is supposed to get BlackDar of the day....

  11. InTheCone's Avatar
    No TC's on the map for the first time in a long time, and no real areas of impending DOOM - for the time being.

  12. InTheCone's Avatar
    Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice 47m47 minutes agoMore



    Keeping an eye on the western Caribbean still for possible tropical cyclone development during the first week of October.





  13. InTheCone's Avatar
    Zen pic. of the day....

  14. Aislinn's Avatar
    Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyjuan! Love the simpson graph and the zen pic. Reminds me so much of where I grew up. Showers this afternoon would be good, we haven't had any since Harvey's deluge.

    Breakfast’s on the sideboard: beignets, apple pie pancakes, biscuits and gravy, scrambled eggs with pieces of bacon and shrimp, poached eggs with salmon, grillades and grits, Cajun fried ride with crawfish, green onion sausage, crème brulee pain perdu, andouille sausage Cajun scramble, fresh fruit, tea or coffee, flavored creamers. Enjoy!
  15. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by libgoon
    Bit of spin in the Gulf ... Just sayin ....




    Hnc Sat pages have got very laggy recently for me .... Have over 50 mb more speed now ... but the pages are so slow to load ,,,,,

    Juan should keep a watchful eye on the pre-invest.
  16. NavarreMark's Avatar
    Yummy!

    I'll have 3 plates of biscuits & gravy please.

    Thank You very much.
  17. InTheCone's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by NavarreMark
    Juan should keep a watchful eye on the pre-invest.
    Grumble, grumble, @#$$%#%$$,

    Adrian Linares‏ @Adriansweather 35m35 minutes agoMore



    Probability from EPS up to 70% for a tropical depression to form in the Western Caribbean mid to late next week.






  18. InTheCone's Avatar
    Morning Aislinn!

    Time for some BreakFast before I lose my mind. I'm scheduled to have lens replacement surgery(1st of 2) next Monday and I don't want a friggin' storm.

    So I'll have biscuits and gravy, scrambled eggs with pieces of bacon and shrimp, poached eggs with salmon, grillades and grits, Cajun fried rice with crawfish, green onion sausage, andouille sausage Cajun scramble and coffee with any liquor that's available poured in it. TYVM and I hope you get some rain!
  19. hurricat's Avatar
    Another model war setting up. The 06z Goofy sends the Carib mess to Texas/Mexico while the Euro and Canadians send it to Florida.

    Stay tuned.
  20. Aislinn's Avatar
    Hey Mark, Cone and HC!

    Passes Mark 3 plates of biscuits and gravy and Cone a platter of biscuits and gravy, scrambled eggs with pieces of bacon and shrimp, poached eggs with salmon, grillades and grits, Cajun fried rice with crawfish, green onion sausage, andouille sausage Cajun scramble and a pot of coffee with 12 year old Knappogue added.
  21. InTheCone's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by hurricat
    Another model war setting up. The 06z Goofy sends the Carib mess to Texas/Mexico while the Euro and Canadians send it to Florida.

    Stay tuned.
    Model Wars - Round 3, or is it 300? All I know is the NHC will most likely go wherever the Euro goes, it's more reliable most of the time.
  22. hurricat's Avatar
    Unfortunately you are probably right about that.

    On another note, I am interested in a new weather app. The last couple I tried just haven't been accurate. Which weather app do the Bunker folks find most accurate and useful?

    TIA
  23. InTheCone's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by hurricat
    Unfortunately you are probably right about that.

    On another note, I am interested in a new weather app. The last couple I tried just haven't been accurate. Which weather app do the Bunker folks find most accurate and useful?

    TIA
    That's a very good question. I don't use a phone app for weather, but probably would if there was a good Juan. Maybe Oss would have some good ideas.
  24. StAugustineFL's Avatar
    I use MyRadar on rare occasion when I'm out and about but that's all I'm interested in (radar) during those times. It's free unless juan wants additional bells and whistles.
  25. InTheCone's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by StAugustineFL
    I use MyRadar on rare occasion when I'm out and about but that's all I'm interested in (radar) during those times. It's free unless juan wants additional bells and whistles.
    Me too, I find it to be very handy.
  26. NavarreMark's Avatar
    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 011144
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sun Oct 1 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A trough of low pressure that extends from the eastern Gulf of
    Mexico across portions of Florida
    is producing an area of
    disorganized showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds near the east
    coast of central and northern Florida. Although development of
    this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds
    ,
    gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely to continue over
    portions of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia
    through tonight. Please see statements from local National Weather
    Service forecast offices for additional information.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Cangialosi
  27. NavarreMark's Avatar
    That Cangialoso is such a card.
  28. Ossqss's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by InTheCone
    That's a very good question. I don't use a phone app for weather, but probably would if there was a good Juan. Maybe Oss would have some good ideas.
    Howdy, I use the Myradar app as it has pretty good HD graphics and the ability to push a 2 hr loop. I also use the Radarnow app and actually paid the $6 lifetiime fee on it at the time, but the graphics are not as good.

    Some of the best weather items can be found on many of the local news weather sites, and ya just make a short cut to them. Many also support good mobile interfaces also.

    There are literally millions of apps for weather, but they mostly pull data from the same places in the end.

    Good Luck, as I await the weather to clear that is blocking my directv dish and bringing a halt to my Sunday Ticket viewing!
  29. Landfall2004's Avatar
    Moistcha!

    Looked on radar--rogue cloud.
  30. InTheCone's Avatar
    Evening Peeps!

    I kinda' had the feeling that just sticking to all the usual weather info. was probably just as good as anything else I could find - thanks Oss!

    No rain here, and nothing on the NHC outlook map

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