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Bob Acanfrio

Western Caribbean Trouble Begins! Invest 96L

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by on 10-21-2011 at 02:17 PM (1018 Views)
Bob's Official 2011 Tropical Atlantic Numbers:
16-18 Named Storms
7-9 Hurricanes
4-6 Major Hurricanes

Areas Most At Risk This Season:
1.)Eastern U.S Coastline
2.)Central and South Florida
3.)Northern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to Western Florida Panhandle.

2011 Atlantic Current Numbers:
15 Named Storms
4 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes

Friday October 21st. 2011 Outlook:
The focus for this weekend and into early next week will be an area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean. This area has been tagged as Invest 96L. As we have seen with the emergence of the MJO this month that the Western Caribbean has been heating up with activity. We almost had a system last week with Invest 95L but it circumed to the dry air and shear over the Gulf of Mexico and couldn't fully develop into a tropical system. So will this one be the one to finally give us a named storm for October?? The short answer is yes, I believe we will see a named storm down here most likely by Monday and possible a Tropical Depression by the weekend.

Shear is already starting to fall over our system this morning and this should allow for the continuation of t-storm development around the broad area of circulation this morning. And again its not out of the question to see a Tropical Depression down here by Sunday.

Ok, so if this system develops where is it going?? Do we have to be concerned here across Florida?? Well, the short answer is maybe?? Yeah I know everyone wants answers right now!!

Here is what we have as far as the models go according the 0Z runs. We have the models in the Move North Camp, which is a track Northward towards the Yucatan Channel /Western Cuba and then possible South Florida later in the week. These models are the Canadian, Euro and the UKMET. Then we have the models in the Stay Down In The Western Caribbean and Move Towards Central American models. These models are the GFS, Ensemble Euros, and the NOGAPS. So you see where the divide is right now. Since we really don't know exactly where the actually center is going to develop its really hard to pinpoint which set of these models at this time are correct. Its way too early in the game. This weekend we will be watching for a few things. Where this system finally develops?? Farther East or West will make a big difference in track. How strong is the High over the Southeast?? Is it giving up ground or not?? This will tell the tale if this system wants to move North or not. And in the long range models how strong will that trough be that is coming down across the Eastern U.S during the Thursday/Friday time frame?? This is what could induce our system Northeastward if it gets far enough North. Alot of ifs right now in the forecast and I am not ready to make a call either way at the moment. I am gonna watch and see what happens over the weekend. In any event the conditions are there for areas in the Western Caribbean to possible see a Hurricane out of this down the road. So those of you in Central America, Yucatan(if you are traveling down this way check ahead), Cayman Islands, Jamaica, all of these areas need to be on alert. As for the U.S and specifically Florida, no need to worry right now, this one we are just gonna watch thru the weekend and see what happens.

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  1. Bob Acanfrio's Avatar
    Also the GFS is developing another tropical system behind this one coming from the disturbed weather just North of South America that will be moving into the Central Caribbean by later next week.
  2. whepton3's Avatar
    Always informative Bob.

    Stay tuned over the weekend!
  3. Stats56's Avatar
    Thanks Bob, sums it up very well, wait and see
  4. emcf30's Avatar
    Thanks Bob
  5. gomexwx's Avatar
    If it detaches from the front it heads for the Pacific Basin...
    thanks for the insight!
  6. aqua's Avatar
  7. Cos's Avatar
    Thank you Mr. A.
  8. Bob Acanfrio's Avatar
    Looks like alittle bit of NE to East shear is still affecting Invest 96L this morning, just enough to keep convection from building around the center. We will see what the Hunters find this afternoon.

    Models changing there tune just a bit as far as the 0Z runs last nite. But again way too early to tell what will happen. Just to note the GFS is much more amplified with the trough coming down later this week then the Euro. That could almost kick this system East of Florida. Again if this stays weak it may just move into Central America and never get too strong. Wait and see as always. I will try and update as the weekend goes along.
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